At the macro level, according to the CME 'FedWatch' data, the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a rate cut probability of 87.6%. In addition, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve in the coming months are also relatively pessimistic, with a probability of 69.3% that the Federal Reserve may continue to cut rates by 25 basis points by January 2026. In contrast, the likelihood of maintaining the current interest rate is only 12.4%.
In this economic environment, Kevin Hassett, the Director of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, also stated that the Federal Reserve has enough room to implement significant interest rate cuts. In this regard, Hassett clearly stated that if economic data supports such a move, 'significant rate cuts are entirely feasible.' This statement also echoes Trump's position, as Trump has previously stated that he hopes quick rate cuts will become a key criterion for his nomination of the Federal Reserve Chair.
In addition, regarding regulatory issues in the cryptocurrency field, SEC Chairman Paul Atkins recently revealed at the Blockchain Association Policy Summit that the SEC will quickly promote priorities related to the cryptocurrency industry next year, and relevant proposals are expected to be gradually implemented. Atkins' regulatory approach contrasts sharply with that of former chairman Gary Gensler. Gensler's tough policies had sparked widespread controversy, particularly regarding enforcement actions against large cryptocurrency companies. Atkins, on the other hand, stated that the SEC would more clearly delineate which digital assets are considered securities and promote the acceleration of cryptocurrency product approvals.
Globally, the regulation of the cryptocurrency industry is gradually deepening. Maria Luis Albuquerc, the European Commissioner for Financial Services, recently stated that the EU plans to implement capital market integration reforms by 2027 and grant the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) greater regulatory powers, which will also extend to cryptocurrency companies. Meanwhile, the French Financial Markets Authority (AMF) has also announced that it will relax restrictions on cryptocurrency investments for retail investors, planning to allow certain crypto investment products to open to the retail market starting in October 2025.
Russian President Putin recently mentioned at the "Russia is Calling!" investment forum that the development of new payment tools such as Bitcoin will inevitably drive the transformation of the global payment system. He pointed out that the global dominance of the US dollar is facing challenges, with more and more countries seeking alternative assets, including cryptocurrencies, to cope with the policy risks of the dollar.
On-chain data shows that yesterday's Bitcoin turnover rate has decreased, indicating that market panic has begun to gradually ease.
URPD data, 104,500-112,000 USD range accumulated 2.428 million bitcoins; 91,000-96,000 USD range accumulated 1.483 million bitcoins.
Overall, the on-chain and off-chain selling pressure has eased, and market demand has slowed, providing favorable conditions for Bitcoin's rebound. Since the stop-loss at 80600 USD, Bitcoin's rebound has not yet ended, but it still belongs to the oversold recovery phase, and this process is expected to continue until March 2026. In the short term, the market is still in a technical recovery phase, the trend has not yet reversed, and investors should pay attention to subsequent demand changes.#加密市场反弹
