On a macro level, the Federal Reserve has once again signaled easing — the benchmark interest rate has been reduced by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive rate cut, bringing the total reduction for the year to 75 basis points. This action aligns with market expectations and sets the tone for the policy pace in the coming months.
The latest dot plot reveals a more nuanced distribution of attitudes: among 19 officials, opinions are clearly divided. From the 7 who advocate for 'no rate cut' to the moderates supporting a cut of 25 or 50 basis points, and then to the extreme doves advocating for a maximum cut of 150 basis points, multiple voices are shaping the policy debate. The Federal Reserve still expects to implement a small rate cut once in 2026 and once in 2027.
On the regulatory front, the U.S. Congress is racing to push the cryptocurrency market structure bill into reality. With only a few days left before the recess, lawmakers are intensifying their efforts to address the remaining contentious provisions. An industry insider familiar with the process revealed that there is only about a 48-hour 'effective window' left for the bill to enter the agenda next week. Senator Cynthia Lummis, one of the bipartisan advocates, has indicated that an updated draft will be released this weekend, with plans to push for deliberation next week, aiming to make a key step in the legislative process before the year-end holidays.
In industry news, the cryptocurrency mining company American Bitcoin, supported by the Trump family, has recently continued to expand its holdings, adding approximately 416 Bitcoins since December 2, bringing its total reserve to 4,783 Bitcoins as of December 8, showing a steady accumulation trend.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's turnover rate increased yesterday, with short-term funds becoming noticeably active, primarily driven by speculative bets ahead of key events. As the impact of events gradually dissipates, the turnover rate is likely to revert to normal levels.
URPD data shows that 2,417,000 Bitcoins are accumulated in the $104,500-$112,000 range; 1,648,000 Bitcoins are accumulated in the $91,000-$96,000 range.
Overall, Bitcoin still faces selling pressure from on-chain and exchange activities, especially among new investors whose costs are below $90,000, where reduction behaviors are more evident. Demand growth has slowed down, but the rebound trend remains intact. The current market is more in a phase of technical repair, and it will take time to confirm a clearer trend reversal signal.#美联储降息
