🧐$DOGE, the king of the last cycle, has many significant events today, but there hasn't even been a splash｜
Elon Musk's call, the $DOGE that swept the MEME market last cycle, why is this cycle suddenly “without ripples”?
Many people are asking this question!
On one hand, the NYSE has approved the listing of Grayscale DOGE and XRP spot ETFs this Monday, and the market's feedback is extremely weak;
On one hand, the U.S. government's Efficiency Department (DOGE), which was supposed to operate until July 2026, has officially disbanded!
In the last cycle, everyone was shouting about breaking through the previous era's MEME king $DOGE, which was in disarray in the wind;
I believe Elon Musk's calls and the last cycle's sweep of the MEME market with $DOGE this cycle is "uneventful" not because the narrative has disappeared, but because the capital structure is aging.
1️⃣ The last cycle's "Musk + new user dividends", this cycle has none of that.
The outbreak of DOGE in the last cycle was essentially due to:
Musk's calls ✖️ Robinhood retail uprising ✖️ Epic liquidity easing triple hit.
This year, even if the ETF has pulled it into the "regular army", without incremental retail investors and even with liquidity continuing to decrease, there are no Musk-triggered events, so the narrative naturally cannot be lifted.
The era of calls has ended, and Musk's influence in the crypto world is diminishing.
2️⃣ DOGE itself: unlimited supply, aging structure, concentrated holdings, no new story:
DOGE is infinitely minted (50 billion new coins each year), which means:
No "deflationary imagination";
There is no "market cap ceiling compression effect";
Large funds do not want to hold long-term;
Moreover, the DOGE whales made huge profits in the last cycle, and this cycle they are even less willing to provide liquidity or continue to lift the market.
And the MEME boom in this cycle is exceptionally hot, whether it's the new regulations from the early stage $PePe or the later explosive $Trump gameplay and popularity, both far exceed Dogecoin.
No new narrative, no supply story, no capital impetus.
This is the biggest issue for Dogecoin in this round of the market.
3️⃣ Does Dogecoin have a future?
Even as mentioned above, I think in this round of the bull market, DOGE's advantages are almost nonexistent, but that doesn't mean it has no future at all. I still hold some DOGE, especially during this low-level consolidation period;
Because: The biggest variable for DOGE is always Musk:
Although the "call era" has ended, if Musk really integrates DOGE into: X payments, Tesla ecosystem, Starlink micro-payments, xAI tipping system, or future Martian currency;
As long as one is realized, DOGE will fly again.
Although it is difficult for it to explode a hundred times like in 2021, it is also hard to go to zero. DOGE will not die, but it is no longer a "growth asset". I have a few suggestions for everyone:
1) Light position sentiment level: completely OK within 5%;
2) Deep drop rebounds can be made for swings;
3) When encountering Musk events, dare to sell, don't wait for the "next tweet";
4) Don't fantasize about doubling at the peak;
5) Don't go all in, don't heavy invest;
What DOGE is best suited for is:
Event gaming + rhythm trading + light positions accompanying the run.
