MSCI Index 'Knife' + ETF Capital Outflow, Is the Myth of the Currency Storage Model Coming to an End? 🔪

As a veteran in the crypto circle for 7 years, Sister IELTS has been closely watching Strategy, the 'Bitcoin Holdings Leader' — after all, every move it makes is a 'barometer' of market trends. Last week, this giant, holding 649,870 bitcoins (average cost $74,400/each), suddenly paused its six-week streak of increased holdings, instantly sparking heated discussions both inside and outside the circle. This is by no means a coincidence; the signals hidden behind it may rewrite the market logic in the coming period.

1. The Core of the Suspension of Increased Holdings: Premium Collapse, Gameplay Failure

The 'myth of increasing holdings' in the strategy relies on a closed loop of 'issuing shares for financing → buying Bitcoin → pushing up net assets → stock price premium.' But this method has completely stalled: stock prices have plummeted 70% from their peak, and the premium of market value relative to Bitcoin's net assets (mNAV) has dropped from 2.5 times to 1.2 times, trading almost at the net asset value line.

More critically, MSCI's '50% red line' rule: companies with digital assets exceeding 50% will be removed from the stock index, officially implemented in February next year. This means that passive funds tracking the index will be forced to sell their stocks, with JPMorgan estimating the selling pressure could reach $8.8 billion. At this point, issuing new shares to buy coins has become unprofitable, making the pause in increasing holdings an inevitable choice.

2. The triple chain reaction on the crypto market

1. Expectations for incremental funds cooling: Strategy is the world's largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder, and its halt in increasing holdings directly undermines the market's confidence in 'large-scale corporate purchases of coins.' Coupled with the pressure of $3.5 billion flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs in a single month, short-term buying support has weakened.

2. Storage currency models face collective liquidation: Not only Strategy, but also companies like Japan's Metaplanet and others following suit have seen their stock prices plummet 70%. The model of 'holding coins without creating cash flow' has been abandoned by the market, and the industry is entering an elimination phase.

3. Valuation logic reconstruction: Bitcoin's drop from 120,000 to 80,000 is essentially a correction of the leveraged storage currency play. Future price increases will rely more on macro liquidity and long-term institutional allocation, rather than the leveraged games of public companies.

3. Sister IELTS's core judgment: cycle switching, returning to essence

This adjustment is not Bitcoin's 'doomsday,' but rather an inevitable path from market frenzy to rationality. MSCI's rules have cut off inappropriate leveraged plays, making Bitcoin's valuation logic purer—those who hope to 'ride the wave of major players increasing holdings to trade coins' should adjust in time.

For investors, the focus should be on two types of opportunities: first, 'value-added' holding entities that can create cash flow through methods such as the Lightning Network and staking; second, ecological participants laying out Bitcoin infrastructure. The market is differentiating, and truly valuable assets will eventually stand out.

The cryptocurrency circle is never short of stories, but only essence can transcend cycles. Follow Sister IELTS for continuous tracking of Strategy's holding dynamics and ETF fund flows, helping you accurately grasp opportunities during market turning points@Crypto雅思 #比特币波动性