Recent on-chain and derivatives data shows that Bitcoin regaining the $90,000 level cannot be considered a true challenge. In other words, the $90,000 line is not the main pressure point determining the trend.

First, from the cost structure of short-term holders, the average holding cost for less than 1 month is about $92,000, and for less than 3 months, it is about $99,000. This means that Bitcoin will only start to gradually unlock short-term trapped funds when it enters the $92,000–$99,000 range, which will lead to relatively significant selling pressure. This area is the price range where short-term funds are more sensitive.

On the other hand, the layout of the options market reveals clearer funding preferences. Comparing the Call options at $90,000 and $92,000, the latter has significantly higher activity among buyers and sellers, indicating that the pricing range around $92,000 is where traders are competing more fiercely. Particularly, the large amount of sold Call positions at $92,000 requires market makers to increase spot selling to hedge Delta when the underlying price approaches this range, thus creating stronger upward resistance; in contrast, the options interest near $90,000 is relatively weak, with limited resistance.

Theoretically, as long as the time and emotional conditions are restored, it should not be difficult for Bitcoin to return to $90,000. However, this time, greater uncertainty comes from 'time' itself. The large-scale realized losses (EARL) that appeared on the 21st represent a wave of deep exits, causing substantial damage to market sentiment. The loss-making positions actively cutting losses indicate that confidence is unlikely to recover quickly in the short term, and new incremental funds will still require time to cultivate.

The truly decisive battlefield may not be $90,000 or $92,000, but rather in the range above $92,000 up to $98,000. This area is close to the 'fair price' of Bitcoin over the past decade and is a key zone that failed to recover during multiple rebounds in the last cycle. The tightening of the Federal Reserve's policy, along with unexpected events such as the Luna collapse, led to multiple unsuccessful attempts, ultimately signaling the end of the bull market.

Overall, short-term recovery is hopeful, but as it approaches the range of $92,000 to $98,000, the pressure becomes more concentrated. Whether it can regain market initiative will depend on the synchronized improvement of time, sentiment, and external funding willingness.#加密市场反弹