On a macro level, according to the CME's 'FedWatch' tool data, the market has reached a relatively unified judgment on the monetary policy direction for December: the probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points this month has risen to 84.9%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current interest rate level is only 15.1%. Looking ahead to January 2026, the probability of a cumulative rate cut of 25 basis points is 66.4%, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 11.1%, and the expectation of a cumulative rate cut of 50 basis points has reached 22.6%. This indicates that the market still holds a considerable degree of confidence in policy easing over the next two months.
Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that the selection process for the Federal Reserve Chairman position has entered the final round of interviews, with five candidates reaching the final stage. According to the current schedule, President Trump may announce the final candidate before Christmas. This news adds extra uncertainty to the market.
In the crypto industry, Uniswap announced that the contract for its 'fee switch' proposal has been officially deployed to the Ethereum mainnet and is about to enter the on-chain voting process. This proposal will offer up to $15.5 million in bug bounties to attract security researchers to participate in system reviews.
The movements at the institutional level are also receiving a lot of attention. According to market news, Strategy (MSTR) has raised a total of $21 billion this year for the purchase of Bitcoin, while the Japanese listed company MetaPlanet is raising $130 million using Bitcoin as collateral to further expand its Bitcoin holdings.
On-chain data shows that yesterday the Bitcoin turnover rate continued to decline, with market sentiment remaining relatively stable. The main turnover occurred between short-term investors who entered the market in the last two days.
URPD data shows that 2.048 million Bitcoins are accumulated in the range of $104,500-$111,000; 1.114 million Bitcoins are accumulated in the range of $93,500-$98,500.
In summary, Bitcoin is currently in a weak oscillation phase, with market liquidity being relatively weak. In the absence of external funding, even if there is a short-term rebound, its height may still be limited, especially in the range of $92,000-$98,000, where pressure will be more concentrated. Whether the future trend can regain dominance depends on the resonance of time, sentiment, and incremental funds.
From a cyclical perspective, there is still a possibility of a trend reversal in the next 1-2 months, while the current market structure is not sufficient to declare the end of the bull market.#加密市场反弹
