In recent days, there has been a large number of contract cancellations, and the liquidity of BTC and ETH will become more sensitive.

Recently, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly. Has the market come back?

However, after looking at the market data, it tells me one thing: this is not a bull market; the forces driving it may be different from what you think.

Investment carries risks, and financial management requires caution. My accounts on all platforms are unified under @zytxweb; others are impersonations.

① First, let's look at the unrealized gains of BlackRock's ETF holdings, which have dropped from the tens of billions at the highest in October to close to the current price. Market pressure is not as great as before. The more money institutions make (the more unrealized gains), the more likely they are to sell off. The closer institutions are to their cost, the less they dare to sell off recklessly.

The ETF saw a slight net inflow again in the past two weeks. This is not a signal of a bull market, but at least it's the first time the market has stabilized.

② The probability of a 25% rate cut in December has jumped from last week's 40% to now 85%. This change in expectation is often a plus for risk assets, but right now the market is not concerned with 'whether there will be a rate cut' but rather whether the Federal Reserve is willing to start the next round of easing. This uncertainty remains high.

③ The liquidation range is currently very sensitive. According to data from Coinglass:

• Breaking above 93,000 → The scale of short liquidations is 1.042 billion

• Falling below 89,000 → The scale of long liquidations reaches 1.16 billion

It can be said that both sides are landmines, and stepping on either side will explode.

④ Finally, let's look at the options structure:

The recent pullback has allowed many bearish people to take profits in the 81,000–82,000 range. However, at the same time, there has been a very aggressive year-end bullish combination in the market:

• 100,000

• 106,000

• 112,000

• 118,000

These are all bullish options expiring in December. This type of combination is not small, and behind it are some traders betting on a 'Christmas rally'.

On the other hand, there are also people continuously selling these high-position bullish options to suppress volatility. So the market now gives me the feeling that: the long-term outlook is bullish, but the short-term is very cautious.

ETH also has 1.7 billion expiring, with a relatively balanced structure. The key is still whether BTC's volatility will spread outward.