BTC (2025-12-01 08:30) | Long and Short Trend Index: 31 / 100 (Clearly Weakening, Short-term Entering Oversold Rebound Observation Period)
BTC is currently priced at approximately 88,300 USD, a significant drop of about -3.2% in the past 24 hours. A rapid decline occurred in the morning, forming a volume surge and sharp drop structure, entering an extreme oversold area in the short term. If the price cannot regain above 89,500, the weakness will continue; if a strong rebound occurs, the target area looks toward 90,800—91,200.
【Short-term Trend】
The 15-minute chart shows MA7 and MA25 accelerating downward, with moving averages diverging bearish. MACD bearish bars are sharply increasing, and RSI once dropped to around 12, in a severely oversold area, indicating a technical rebound demand in the short term. The trading volume is rapidly increasing, indicating that the sell-off comes from concentrated selling pressure rather than a natural pullback.
On the hourly chart, the price breaks below all major moving averages, MA7 < MA25 < MA99, and the trend structure has completely weakened. MACD death cross is expanding, and RSI has fallen to around 20, showing that bears continue to dominate, but a weak pullback may occur in the short term.
【Medium-term Trend】
The 4-hour chart's rebound structure has been damaged, MA7 and MA25 are bending downward again, and MACD bullish bars have shortened and turned into green bars, with momentum clearly shifting to bearish. RSI has fallen to around 35, not yet entering extreme values but showing a weak trend. If it fails to quickly reclaim 89,800, the rebound structure is difficult to repair.
On the daily chart, the price has once again fallen below MA7, with clear signs of a rebound termination. MACD green bars are expanding again, and RSI has slipped to around 35, indicating that the daily trend has returned to a downward segment. Overall, it still belongs to a stage of failure in the rebound during a downtrend.
【Long-term Structure】
The weekly chart is still oscillating near MA25, but continues to face pressure. MACD long-term momentum is still declining, and RSI is around 38, in a weak structure. Although the long-term trend has not been broken, the synchronous weakening of the medium and short-term cycles is transmitting pressure to the long-term.
【News】
1. US Treasury yield has risen to 4.9%, and the US dollar index has strengthened, overall suppressing risk asset sentiment.
2. BTC ETF saw a net outflow of about 170 million USD yesterday, the largest single-day outflow in nearly four days.
3. The market has heard that some institutions are making quarterly adjustments, and short-term selling pressure may be related to passive selling.
