"Christmas Rally" may be absent this year, and the market needs a new perspective

At this time of year, U.S. stocks typically begin to enter a stable upward "Christmas Rally." However, several analysts have recently pointed out that this year's market environment is different from the past, and "Santa Claus" may not arrive as expected.

Why is this year different?

Looking back over the year, the market has experienced too many unconventional events: from the tech stock fluctuations at the beginning of the year, the sudden tariff policies, to the ongoing anxiety over AI valuations. This has resulted in:

· Significant increase in market volatility

· Traditional seasonal patterns have largely failed

· Investors have become more cautious, increasing protection against downturns

The impact on digital assets is worth noting

Although this is an analysis of U.S. stocks, the logic is also worth our attention:

1. Volatility may spread: If U.S. stocks continue to fluctuate, the sentiment of global risk assets will also be affected

2. Focus on the Federal Reserve: The market's expectations for a rate cut in December have skyrocketed from 30% to about 87.4%, which will be crucial in affecting the prices of all assets

3. Liquidity expectations: If the rate cut happens, it may improve the overall funding environment of the market

Advice for ordinary investors

Facing a market that does not play by historical rules:

· Stay flexible, and don't overly rely on "seasonal patterns"

· Pay close attention to the actual decisions of the Federal Reserve in December

· Maintain rationality amid fluctuations, and avoid being swayed by short-term emotions

The market is changing, and our strategies should also keep pace. Staying observant and leaving room for flexibility may be more important than predicting whether "Santa Claus" will come. What do you think about the year-end market?

(Information compiled from Wall Street analyst reports and CME data, for reference only) #圣诞行情 $BTC $ETH