December Federal Reserve Meeting Preview: Rate Cuts Possible, but Signals Matter More

Friends, Barclays Bank has just released a detailed forecast for the Federal Reserve's December meeting, highlighting several key points worth noting.

Barclays' Core Viewpoint

They expect that the Federal Reserve is very likely to cut rates by 25 basis points this month, but the key is in the subsequent guidance—Powell may release slightly 'hawkish' signals at the press conference, suggesting that a pause in rate cuts is likely in January unless the job market suddenly deteriorates significantly.

What Does This Mean? The market may not be anticipating just a rate cut, but a sustained cycle of rate cuts. If the Federal Reserve hints at a 'wait-and-see' approach, the market's enthusiasm could be dampened.

Potential Impact on Digital Assets

1. Expectations May Be Adjusted: Current market expectations for rate cuts are very high (over 80%); if the meeting results align with expectations but the guidance leans hawkish, there may be a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' shakeout.

2. Focus Will Shift: After the meeting, the market's focus will quickly shift from 'Will there be a rate cut in December?' to 'Will there be a pause in January?' and the overall interest rate path for next year.

3. Volatility May Increase: Given that there may be clear divisions within Barclays' forecast (possibly 2-3 dissenting votes), this divergence itself will make market sentiment more sensitive.

Observation Suggestions for Everyone

In the face of such a critical meeting:

· Manage Expectations: The rate cut itself may already be priced in by the market, so focus on Powell's statements regarding the 'future path.'

· Stay Patient: Market volatility may increase before and after the meeting; avoid making emotionally driven decisions at the moment news breaks.

· Think Long-Term: Ultimately, what drives the market will still be the fundamental trends of inflation and employment, rather than the outcome of a single meeting.

In conclusion, this meeting may not provide a simple 'easing' signal, but rather a more complex, data-dependent policy outlook. Staying calm, observing carefully, may be more important than predicting the outcome itself.

(This analysis is based on Barclays Bank research reports and CME market data, for reference only) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH