Yesterday morning, the rapid drop in Bitcoin briefly disrupted the originally stabilizing rebound rhythm, causing market sentiment to become tense again. However, from the on-chain data updated this morning, the overall level of panic has not further deteriorated and instead shows signs of some easing.
Taking EARL (Entity Adjusted Realized Loss) as an example, approximately 820 million dollars was recorded on December 1, significantly down from the peak of 2.34 billion dollars on November 21. This indicates that although prices are declining, the market's forced selling intensity has not returned to the extreme levels seen earlier.
Looking again at the realized loss data flowing into exchanges: approximately $80 million on December 1, which is still far below the $320 million on November 21, and also lower than the two larger loss scales on November 14 and November 17. From the perspective of continuity indicators, there has been no further amplification trend in panic selling.
Looking back at the extreme EARL scale on November 21, although the data is impressive, it has likely already formed a short-term 'ceiling.' As long as there are no continuous significant negative impacts, even if prices fluctuate again afterwards, the possibility of panic losses continuing to decline still exists.
For judging a short-term bottom, a key signal is: during the decline, the single-day scale of EARL continuously decreases, or the overall trend shrinks. In other words, the orderly clearing of panic positions is a necessary condition for the market to move towards the bottom stage.
Therefore, although this round of adjustment may not end immediately, at least the current data indicates that the market has not further deteriorated, and the release of panic positions is evolving towards a more benign direction.#加密市场回调
