The current volatility of Bitcoin is almost highly synchronized with the Japanese yen. Why do I say this? Let’s talk about the arbitrage logic behind it. Simply put, the yen's interest rate was extremely low before (the cost of borrowing was almost zero), so many big players borrowed large amounts of yen, then exchanged these yen for USD, investing in high-risk, high-return assets like $BTC . This is the yen arbitrage trading. Now, the Bank of Japan is going to raise interest rates, and the cost of borrowing yen has increased. The big players must quickly close their positions (sell $BTC to exchange for USD, then exchange back to yen to repay debts).

Therefore, once the yen strengthens (arbitrage closing positions lead to yen being bought), $BTC faces selling pressure. The trend of BTC naturally synchronizes with the yen.

Thus, Bitcoin has fully integrated into the global macro liquidity cycle! It is no longer an isolated market but a barometer of global capital migration. The biggest risk now is the concentrated closing of yen arbitrage trades. This amount of capital is enormous, and once there is a large-scale withdrawal from the BTC market, we will face continued downward pressure.

BTCUSDT

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