I just saw an interesting analysis from two major banks (Deutsche Bank and Standard Bank) suggesting that the US dollar may be experiencing some "headaches" lately, facing three potential pressures.

What are the three pressures?

In simple terms, they are three things that could happen simultaneously:

1. Tariffs or changes: The US Supreme Court may rule that previous tariff policies are illegal.

2. The Federal Reserve may change to "insider": If Trump's economic advisor Hassett becomes the chairman of the Federal Reserve, he is believed to support faster interest rate cuts.

3. Japan may raise interest rates: If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates this month, the yen will strengthen, which in turn will suppress the dollar.

What does this have to do with the digital asset market?

The relationship lies in a common logic: when the dollar weakens, it often benefits alternative assets like Bitcoin. Because:

· A depreciating dollar makes global dollar liquidity appear relatively loose.

· Some funds may seek assets outside of the dollar that potentially offer higher returns.

Possible impact pathways

If these pressures really materialize:

1. Emotionally or constitute support: It will strengthen the market's expectations for a "loose" environment, which is not necessarily bad for digital assets.

2. Increased sources of volatility: The outcomes of these matters are uncertain, and any minor fluctuations may first impact the foreign exchange market, then transmit over.

3. Beware of "expectations falling short": If it turns out to be a false alarm, and the dollar rebounds, the market's optimistic sentiment may also reverse.

Reference thoughts for everyone

In the face of this complex macro situation:

· Understanding logic is more important than guessing results: The focus is not on betting which event will happen, but on understanding the "weak dollar -> risk asset preference rises" transmission chain.

· Grasp the main contradictions: Among these three, the personnel and policy direction of the Federal Reserve have the most direct and lasting impact on the market, worth spending more energy to track.

· Maintain response flexibility: In a tumultuous season, ensuring that one's positions can withstand various unexpected fluctuations is always a good idea.

In summary, this is a macro background change worth noting. It does not constitute a direct operational directive, but it can help us better understand where market sentiment may come from.

(Opinions are synthesized from multiple international investment bank analyses and are for reference only) #美联储何时降息？ $BTC $ETH