The first cryptocurrency continues to trade near the mark of $92,000 after recovering quotes this week. Despite the local growth, the growing cluster of on-chain indicators suggests that the market has already entered a downward phase.
The current trading structure creates a noticeable contrast with the expectations of several major industry participants.
Contradictions in expert forecasts
Well-known market strategists maintain moderate optimism. Tom Lee recently adjusted his initial target of $250,000 but still expects Bitcoin to remain above $100,000 by the end of the year. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes adheres to an even more aggressive scenario. He called the recent drop to the $80,000 range a local bottom of the cycle and predicts potential growth to levels of $200,000–250,000.
Nevertheless, objective market data does not align with these hypotheses. Fundamental metrics indicate a weakening of the upward trend.
Negative signals from CryptoQuant indicators
The composite Bull Score Signals index from the analytical platform CryptoQuant clearly demonstrates a deterioration in the situation. During previous phases of growth, including the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2025, the model showed stable 'green' values. This pertained to the assessment of value, increased demand, network activity, and the liquidity of stablecoins.
Since mid-2025, these components have entered the 'red' zone. The MVRV Z-score indicator, which assesses market value relative to realized value, signals market overheating. Network activity has weakened, and the purchasing power of stablecoins has decreased.
The observed pattern resembles the early stages of the decline in 2022 rather than a continuation of this year's rally.
Dynamics of the Bull Score index
A detailed analysis of the Bull Score index confirms a change in sentiment. In the first half of 2025, Bitcoin was in 'bullish' territory with values above 60 points. By the end of August, the indicator began to decline sharply, dropping below 40 points in October. In November, the index remained flat, despite short-term price volatility.
Currently, the metric's value fluctuates in the range of 20–30. This corresponds to deep 'bearish' conditions. The price bounce from last week's lows had little impact on the fundamental signals of the cycle.
The model overlaid on the price chart has transformed from 'extra-growth' signals at the beginning of the year to stable 'decline' values in the autumn period. Even the recent recovery to $92,000 is classified by the system as a rally within a downward trend. Such occurrences are often seen in asset distribution phases at cycle peaks.
Market momentum indicators also confirm a change in the global trend. The relative strength index (RSI) is at a neutral mark of 50. This indicates a lack of confidence among buyers in the continuation of growth this week.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remained in the negative zone for most of the month. This reflects the ongoing capital outflow from the asset, even amid recovering quotes. The MACD indicator, although it entered positive territory, shows a weakening histogram amplitude. This fact indicates the instability of the current movement.
Additional signals heighten analysts' concerns. Short-term spikes in RSI above 70 points have failed to hold, as sellers activate with each breakout attempt. The inability of CMF to return to positive values underscores the process of coin distribution rather than accumulation.
The combination of liquidity data, on-chain activity, and momentum indicates a structural shift in the market. If key metrics do not demonstrate a decisive reversal, the current recovery of Bitcoin may prove to be a temporary correction before further declines.
