Since the beginning of December $BTC has risen by more than 10%. The market met this movement with noticeable enthusiasm: trader activity increased, sentiment became more confident, and trading volumes soared. According to participants' feelings, the market is coming back to life.
Analysts, however, are in no rush to support overall optimism and point out the discrepancy between the dynamics of the crypto market and the state of the economy.
Aggressive buying intensifies the growth momentum
One of the indicators that is currently being actively discussed is the ratio of market purchases to sales. The indicator has risen to 1.17, indicating an increase in aggressive buying activity. Traders are eagerly buying $BTC , without waiting for better levels.
Such behavior is often observed during overheating periods. In such moments, the price is driven not by new money, but by the strengthening of existing players' positions. The rise appears confident, but remains fragile: the momentum can quickly reverse at the first signs of market fatigue.
Economic data indicates a slowdown in activity
In macroeconomics, the situation is developing less dynamically. The velocity of money M2 in the US has stopped growing. The indicator had been rising for a long time after the COVID period, but in recent months it has plateaued.
Such shifts occur quietly. Money continues to circulate in the economy, but the pace of movement is no longer increasing. Such phases often precede a period of weakening economic momentum. The economy seems to be moving at a steady pace, neither accelerating nor gaining energy.
The cryptocurrency market and the economy are moving out of sync
The contrast between the lively Bitcoin market and the calmer US economy becomes apparent. The crypto market shows high activity, while macro indicators speak of stabilization, and in some places, gradual fatigue.
Such discrepancies often appear in the later stages of the market cycle. Prices may rise, but fundamental support gradually weakens. In such a scenario, any movement becomes more sensitive to news, and corrections happen faster.
What investors should consider
The current rise of Bitcoin is largely due to the strengthening of existing investors' positions and the growth of leveraged positions, rather than an influx of new participants. Macro-economic signals indicate a leveling of cash flow. This combination creates a tense backdrop against which volatility increases.
The market may continue to grow, but the very nature of this movement remains more market-driven than fundamental. This is why many participants in the crypto community believe that investors have prematurely begun to celebrate the rise of BTC.
