12.5 Friday Morning Gold Analysis

Yesterday, gold continued to oscillate at high levels. The U.S. unemployment claims data released in the evening was lower than expected, causing a brief bearish reaction. After dipping, gold quickly reversed in a V-shape and regained lost ground, achieving the bullish target of 4220 set yesterday. Although it has maintained slight fluctuations recently, the bullish recovery has been strong after each pullback, combined with expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (current market probability of rate cuts exceeds 89%) and geopolitical risks providing support, the overall bullish structure remains solid.

From a technical perspective, the MACD golden cross on the four-hour chart continues to rise, the Bollinger Bands are extending upwards, and the KDJ indicator is gradually releasing bullish momentum. The key support to watch below is the 4180-4160 range, which is both a crucial support level from previous pullbacks and a densely packed buying area for bulls. The validity of this support has been verified multiple times; the short-term resistance above focuses on 4240-4250, and once broken, it will advance towards the 4260-4300 integer level.

Trading Suggestions

Long Position Setup: Enter in the 4160-4180 range, target 4260-4300

Defensive Settings: Stop loss below 4150 (if it effectively breaks below, the short-term bullish logic will pause)

Core Idea: The short-term oscillation does not change the mid-term upward trend. Pulling back to support levels remains a good opportunity to go long. Be cautious of short-term volatility triggered by data, and after breaking key points, you may increase positions accordingly.