Extreme scarcity and a crucial leap: The core narrative of Ethereum at present
The current Ethereum market is at a complex and critical juncture, centered around 'unprecedented supply tightening' and 'far-reaching technological upgrades,' with bulls and bears fiercely competing.
1. Supply side: Entering the 'extreme scarcity' era
Ethereum's reserves on centralized exchanges (CEX) have dropped to just 8.7% of the circulating supply, marking the lowest level since the network's launch in 2015. A large amount of ETH is continuously flowing into long-term lock-up scenarios such as staking, Layer 2 networks, and institutional vaults. Analysts warn that the market is entering a state of 'extreme scarcity' in supply, and this structural supply tightening could serve as a solid foundation for future price increases.
2. Technology: Achieving a Milestone Upgrade
The highly anticipated 'Fusaka' upgrade was successfully activated in early December. Its core feature is the introduction of the PeerDAS (Peer Data Availability Sampling) system. This is not just an ordinary upgrade; Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin noted that it realizes Ethereum's long-pursued sharding vision and is a key milestone on the roadmap. This technology aims to significantly reduce the verification costs and data burden of Layer 2 networks, paving the way for ecological expansion, with analysis expecting a potential 40-60% reduction in L2 fees.
3. Market: The Game of Long and Short Divergence
In this context, the actions of market participants have shown significant differentiation:
· Bulls: Funds represented by institutions are quietly accumulating. For example, mining transformation company BitMine is reported to hold a large amount of ETH, with its chairman viewing ETH as an asset that can generate cash flow.
· Bears: Some traders labeled as 'smart money' are increasing their short positions, showing caution regarding short-term trends, with concerns potentially including macro market sentiment.
Core Summary
In short, Ethereum is experiencing a situation where 'short-term market sentiment is under pressure' and 'long-term fundamentals are significantly strengthening' coexist. The technical upgrade (Fusaka) has solidified its role as a core settlement layer, while ongoing supply tightening (new lows in exchange reserves) has constructed potential upward momentum economically. The divergence in the market suggests that volatility may intensify, but for long-term investors, the current period may be an important window to focus on these structural changes.#ETH走势分析
