The FOMC meeting will take place this week, and the market’s main focus is whether the Fed will cut rates. Looking back at the last two rate-cut announcements (Sept 17 and Oct 29), Bitcoin showed a clear pattern: prices rose a few days beforehand, briefly bounced right after the announcement, and then fell sharply. Although rate cuts are normally positive, they often trigger a “buy the rumor, sell the news” reaction in the short term.
So what happens this time? The key is not predicting the outcome, but preparing for multiple scenarios. On-chain data is especially important because it reveals market structure earlier than price.
Two metrics matter most:
1. Stablecoin Exchange Reserves
This shows whether fresh capital is entering the market. Rising reserves indicate strong buying power waiting on the sidelines, which can cushion any downside. Falling reserves suggest limited demand and weaker rebounds.
2. Funding Rate
Event weeks are dangerous when leverage is imbalanced. High positive funding means crowded longs that can easily be liquidated, replicating the sharp drops seen after previous announcements. If funding stays neutral, FOMC volatility tends to be milder.
In conclusion, the December FOMC could follow the familiar pattern of “up first, down later,” but the decisive factors will be stablecoin inflows and the market’s leverage structure. Instead of betting on the outcome, reducing exposure and preparing risk-controlled scenarios remains the most practical strategy.
Written by XWIN Research Japan
