On December 8, last week, London spot gold rose and fell, with a weekly decline of 0.77% to $4196.78 per ounce. This week will welcome a super central bank week, with interest rate decisions from not only the Federal Reserve but also the central banks of Canada, Australia, Switzerland, and others. At 3 a.m. Beijing time on December 11, the Federal Reserve will announce its December interest rate decision. In addition to focusing on whether to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, the speech of the Federal Reserve Chairman, the latest quarterly economic forecasts, and the internal game situation are also market highlights. Gold may experience significant short-term fluctuations today.

In terms of macro data, the U.S. ADP employment number in November decreased by 32,000, the largest decline since March 2023. The labor market has shown signs of weakness, but as of the week ending November 29, the initial unemployment claims decreased by 27,000 to 191,000, significantly lower than the market expectation of 220,000 and the previous value of 216,000, indicating limited willingness for corporate layoffs, which has salvaged market perceptions of the labor market. Additionally, the ISM services PMI index in the U.S. rose to 52.6 in November, a new nine-month high, with an expectation of 52.0. The services index was supported by extended supplier delivery times and further improvement in business activity.

Last week, the U.S. President hinted that the next Federal Reserve Chairman would be Hassett. The market believes that if Hassett is elected, it will strengthen bets on a dovish stance, but balancing monetary stimulus with inflation poses challenges. It is also noteworthy that, according to Reuters, the Bank of Japan may raise its policy interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, marking the first rate hike since January this year. The expectation of the Bank of Japan resuming interest rate hikes may lead to a wave of unwinding in past "yen carry trades," putting significant pressure on global risk assets, especially U.S. dollar assets.

Last week, influenced by the Federal Reserve maintaining dovish expectations and no new developments in the Russia-Ukraine geopolitical situation, gold performed relatively strongly but continued to operate within a volatile range. The market's focus on the Federal Reserve's meeting is on the subsequent interest rate cut expectations and whether there will be policy expectations injected into the market after ending the balance sheet reduction. Overall, the market has fully priced in a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve, so the meeting may be a buy-the-news event for gold, with significant short-term fluctuations expected today, so caution is advised.