On Monday, December 8, a cryptic post from Michael Saylor skyrocketed the price of Bitcoin by more than $4,000 in less than three hours during the Asian session morning. His message '₿ack to Orange Dots?' fueled speculation about Strategy's accumulation strategy, pushing the digital asset from just under $88,000 to over $91,000.
This reaction shows how the founder of Strategy's statements can strongly influence market sentiment, even when the overall market sentiment remains paralyzed by extreme fear.
Decoding a mysterious post
Michael Saylor's colorimetric system exerts a major influence on the market. Indeed, the 'orange dots' symbolize each Bitcoin purchase event by Strategy, visible on the company's StrategyTracker.com portfolio chart. Each marker represents an additional step in the company's solid Bitcoin accumulation plan.
The green line on the chart indicates the average purchase price of all acquisitions, thus serving as a benchmark for performance. As of December 8, MicroStrategy held 650,000 BTC valued at $57.80 billion, with an average cost of $74,436 per coin. This position reflected a gain of 19.47%, translating to about $9.42 billion in unrealized profits.
Recently, Saylor added a new dimension to this visual vocabulary. Indeed, his mysterious 'green dots' sparked speculation about potential changes in strategy. The dotted green line, which follows the average cost, is now at the center of attention. Some analysts believe that increased buying activity could drive this indicator up.
A few hours after Saylor's post, the price soared above $91,000. The day's range extended from $87,887 to $91,673, highlighting marked volatility around the signal.
Market dynamics and trader positioning
Despite this rally, Bitcoin market sentiment remained fragile. The fear and greed index signaled persistent anxiety, but long-short ratios showed an optimistic positioning of traders. As fear and profit evolve, market psychology remains complex.
Data from CoinGlass shows that Binance and OKX reported 52.22% long positions against 47.78% short positions, while Bybit's bullish trend was even more pronounced with 54.22% long positions and 45.78% short positions. The most recent four-hour futures volume was $106.77 million (56.23%) in long position against $83.11 million (43.77%) in short position. Traders seemed optimistic despite fear sentiment indicators.
The divergence between sentiment indicators and trader positioning illustrates the complexity of the current market. Thus, many are willing to bet on a marked momentum, especially after influential signals from major holders, although fear persists in the background.
The influence of MicroStrategy, renamed Strategy, extends even further. The company recently established a cash reserve of $1.44 billion to cover dividends and provide 21 months of liquidity. On December 1, 2024, it acquired 130 BTC for about $11.7 million at $89,960 per coin, bringing its total holdings to 650,000 BTC.
Strategic evolution and implications for the market
The company's approach has evolved in recent weeks. CEO Phong Le recently admitted that Strategy might sell Bitcoin if the stock fell below 1x the modified net asset value, in the absence of raising equity or debt. In November 2024, the mNAV reached 0.95, bringing this scenario closer to reality.
This marks a departure from the company's previous stance of 'never selling'. The annual dividend requirements of $750 to $800 million ultimately pushed the firm to consider new liquidity, making its role in the market resemble that of a leveraged Bitcoin ETF. The shares lost more than 60% from their peaks, raising questions about the continuation of accumulation during periods of volatility.
The moral of the story: The master of crypto dictates the market with a word.
