Standard Chartered Bank significantly lowers Bitcoin forecast: Target reduced to $100,000 by the end of 2025, long-term target postponed to 2030
Breaking news! Standard Chartered Bank released a significant adjustment to its Bitcoin price forecast in a report on Tuesday. The bank has halved its Bitcoin price target for the end of 2025 from $200,000 to $100,000, while postponing the long-term target of $500,000 from 2028 to 2030.
Reason for the downgrade: Reevaluation of demand expectations
Standard Chartered analyst Geoffrey Kendrick pointed out that this downgrade is primarily based on a reevaluation of demand expectations. Key factors include:
1. Aggressive corporate purchases have come to an end
Aggressive corporate purchases by entities such as MicroStrategy have "ended." Data shows that global publicly listed companies bought a total of 195,000 Bitcoins in the third quarter of 2025, but the pace of purchases by companies like MicroStrategy has noticeably slowed down.
2. Institutional adoption of ETFs slower than expected
The inflow of institutional funds through ETFs has significantly slowed, with a net inflow of only 50,000 BTC this quarter, the lowest level since the listing. This represents a significant gap from Standard Chartered's previous expectations of sustained strong inflows.
Future driving factors: Reliance solely on ETF purchases
Kendrick emphasized that future Bitcoin price increases will "be driven solely by ETF purchases." This means that the inflow of funds through ETFs will become the main force supporting the price, while the impact of direct corporate purchases and retail participation will significantly weaken.
Market background: Correction from historical highs
Bitcoin hit an all-time high of approximately $126,000 in October 2025 but has recently experienced a significant correction, temporarily falling below the $90,000 mark, a nearly 30% drop from the peak. Standard Chartered had previously forecast that Bitcoin could briefly fall below $100,000 but believes this might be the last time it dips below this psychological level.
Long-term outlook remains optimistic
Despite the short-term forecast downgrade, Standard Chartered still maintains a long-term target of $500,000, only postponing the realization time from 2028 to 2030. This indicates that the bank still has confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin, but believes the pace of increase will be more moderate than previously expected.
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