Standard Chartered has lowered its long-term Bitcoin (BTC) price forecast, warning that this is due to the end of corporate Bitcoin purchases, which have been a key pillar of recent demand.
Banks now believe that the future rise of Bitcoin will be driven solely by one source: inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This may slow the rate of increase over the next few years.
The decline of Bitcoin is 'painful but normal'
Jeff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, stated in a new report that Bitcoin's timeline to reach $500,000 has been pushed back, lowering the year-end price targets for 2026 to 2029.
“The recent decline in Bitcoin prices has occurred rapidly, but this is within the expected range. However, further corporate purchases of Bitcoin are unlikely as the current valuation does not support it. While ETF purchases may be slower than previously anticipated, this will drive price increases. Therefore, we lower our year-end price targets for 2026-29 and postpone the $500,000 target until 2030. This is not a crypto winter, just a cold wind,” Kendrick stated.
The recent price movements of Bitcoin have unsettled investors, but Standard Chartered argues that this sell-off aligns with historical patterns rather than indicating a structural decline.
Kendrick noted that Bitcoin has fallen about 36% from its all-time high on October 6, similar to other declines seen after the launch of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF.
“The recent price movements of Bitcoin (BTC) are challenging, but the decline, even if rapid, is within the 'normal' expected range,” Kendrick added. Similar adjustments have occurred over the past two years.
The timing of the peak has sparked new fears about a crypto winter, as seen in the cycle following the halving in April 2024, about 18 months later.
“The timing of the recent losses led to the narrative of a 'crypto winter' because the peak on October 6 was achieved 18 months after the Bitcoin supply 'halving' in April 2024,” Kendrick added.
However, Standard Chartered does not see the existing halving cycle as still governing Bitcoin’s price behavior.
“We do not see the halving cycle as still valid. Rather, we believe that long-term ETF buyers are a much more important price-determining factor,” he mentioned.
Corporate Bitcoin buying stalls
According to Standard Chartered, a more concerning signal is that the aggressive accumulation of Bitcoin by listed digital asset financial companies (DAT) seems to have ended.
Kendrick pointed out that these companies have played an increasingly prominent role in driving demand over the past year, but valuations no longer justify this expansion.
“Nonetheless, price movements have forced us to reassess our Bitcoin price forecasts. In particular, we believe that purchases by Bitcoin Digital Asset Trust (DAT) will come to an end because the valuations measured by the commonly used metrics, mNAVs, no longer support Bitcoin DAT expansion,” he mentioned.
The bank does not expect widespread sell-offs from these companies but also does not anticipate price support going forward.
“We expect to establish a floor rather than sell, but DAT purchases will not provide additional support,” Kendrick stated.
ETF inflows are a major support level
As corporate Bitcoin purchases weaken, Kendrick believes that Bitcoin's next price movements will rely almost entirely on ETFs.
“As a result, we believe that future Bitcoin price increases will be driven virtually solely by ETF purchases,” he mentioned.
Such changes have led Standard Chartered to delay its most optimistic projections.
“Therefore, we lower our year-end price predictions for 2026-29 and expect Bitcoin to reach a long-term price prediction of $500,000 by 2030, later than the previous 2028,” Kendrick emphasized.
It's a long timeline, but banks still maintain long-term optimism.
“We still believe that this goal is achievable. The portfolio optimization between Bitcoin and gold continues to show that Bitcoin is undervalued in the global portfolio. Although investment approaches and investment committee decision-making take time, we expect it will ultimately lead to a significant Bitcoin rally,” he added.
