Despite a slight increase of 1.5% in XRP price this week, it has fallen nearly 10% over the past month. The price is restricted within the range of $2.31–$1.98 and has not shown a meaningful breakout. This tension reflects the market's divided movements. Whales are selling on the bullish side, while a major holder group continues to buy.
Due to the tug-of-war on both sides, the XRP price remains within a descending wedge pattern that has not yet shown a clear rebound signal.
Whale positions are being reduced... major holder groups are holding out
Whale movements are clearly showing signs of a cautious shift.
Wallets holding 100 million to 1 billion XRP reduced their holdings from 8.32 billion to 8.27 billion as of December 7. Another group holding 10 million to 100 million XRP reduced their holdings from 11.01 billion to 10.99 billion on December 8. These two groups sold approximately 70 million XRP, worth about $14.3 million at current prices, in the last 48 hours.
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The scale of selling is not dramatic on a token basis, but it occurred during a sensitive period when XRP entered a stabilization phase. This selling pressure explains part of the reason why breakout attempts have been thwarted before gaining momentum.
The entities countering this are short-term and medium-term holders, as clearly shown in the HODL Wave data. HODL Wave tracks how long XRP is held within each 'coin duration interval,' showing how long the tokens are stored without moving.
The 1-3 month holding group increased from 8.52% to 10.31%. The 3-6 month holding group also grew from 9.40% to 10.87%.
These holders generally increase their buying when they believe selling pressure is weakening. Their buying during a 10% drop over the past month suggests that they expect the wedge structure to resolve upwards in the future.
Thus, the XRP market is showing a clear dichotomy. On one side are whales selling, and on the other side are investors actively buying at low prices.
Such tension keeps the XRP price trapped within the same converging structure.
XRP price pattern, buying pressure versus selling pressure
XRP is forming a descending wedge, which generally has a high likelihood of a bullish reversal, but it only applies when buying pressure creates a definitive breakout. Currently, the wedge is operating in a stalemate, with whale selling limiting momentum and continuous accumulation by buyers preventing further declines.
The breakout point is located around $2.46. This is the point where the descending trend line meets the current price trend. A strong daily close at this point confirms a reversal signal. In that case, the upside targets will be $2.61, $2.83, and $3.11 in order.
The wedge remains valid while the price moves between $2.31 and $1.98. However, if it drops below $1.98, the pattern weakens, and $1.82, which acted as a structural support in the last cycle, becomes a new support area for the decline.
At this point, the outlook can be summarized as follows. Whale selling is delaying the breakout. Medium-term holders' buying is maintaining the structure. The wedge structure will not be resolved until one side takes control.
