As the three major U.S. stock indexes closed with divergence, and the CME FedWatch pegged the probability of a rate cut in December at a critical level of 87.6%, the crypto market showcased a fierce offensive early this morning—Bitcoin reached a high of $94,554, and Ethereum surged strongly to $3,396, with all short positions in the futures market being liquidated. This is not only a price breakthrough but also a result of the resonance between liquidity expectations and institutional funds. I am Wang Yibo, and today I will guide you through the K-line surface to track the core signals before the implementation of the Federal Reserve's policy and grasp the true intentions of institutional fund flows and on-chain data.
1. Macroeconomic environment anchoring: Federal Reserve interest rate cut probability and divergence in U.S. stocks
U.S. stock market closing pattern: The Dow Jones fell slightly by 0.37%, the Nasdaq rose by 0.13%, and the S&P 500 index closed down by 0.09%. This divergence reflects the market's complex mentality of weighing economic soft landing against policy uncertainty. The resilience of tech stocks indicates that funds are still betting on AI and innovation, resonating with the risk appetite of the crypto market.
Federal Reserve observation: 87.6% probability of a rate cut in December and 69.3% cumulative rate cut probability of 25 basis points in January next year constitute the underlying logic of current market pricing. However, the real game lies in the 'expectation difference of the rate cut'—if Powell releases dovish signals tonight, suggesting a clearer rate cut path in 2025, risk assets will open up greater upside; if the tone is hawkish, it may trigger profit-taking from 'good news already priced in.'
The early response of the crypto market: The fierce surge in the early morning is indeed some prophetic funds betting on dovish results ahead of time. The breakthrough at $94500 technically confirmed the integrity of the short-term rising channel, but whether it can hold depends on tonight's 'final push' from the Federal Reserve.
2. Bitcoin deep analysis: The momentum code from $89000 to $94500
1. Price behavior analysis: Volume breakout and consolidation buildup
Yesterday's white session, Bitcoin experienced narrow fluctuations around the $90000 integer level, with mild long-short battles and cautious market trading. This volume contraction consolidation is a typical form before a breakout—when uncertainty and wait-and-see sentiment peak, any marginal positive news may trigger directional choices.
During the evening session, after a brief drop to $88950, the bullish force suddenly surged, initiating a rapid rise mode. This 'V-shaped reversal' indicates:
• Strong support below: $88950 has become short-term strong support
• Clear bullish control willingness: No significant pullback during the rise, showing the main force's determination to buy
• Short stop-loss triggered: Accumulated short positions above $92500 encountered a series of liquidations, accelerating the rise
After reaching a maximum of $94500, the market entered a slight consolidation. This 'consolidation while slowly rising' situation is not a trend reversal but a normal representation of momentum accumulation. Technically, $94500 is the first resistance level, with concentrated selling pressure from the 2021 highs existing in the $95000-$96000 range, requiring continuous volume expansion to break through.
2. Technical indicators: Continuous verification of bullish arrangement
Moving average system: The 4-hour MA60 (approximately $89000) and MA120 (approximately $87500) are arranged in a bullish manner, with MA60 serving as a dynamic support line, showing strong resilience during pullbacks. The daily MA20 (approximately $90500) has crossed above MA60, forming a golden cross, with clear signals of an upward mid-term trend.
MACD indicator: The 4-hour level histogram continues to expand above the zero axis, with no top divergence in the DIF line, indicating that upward momentum has not been exhausted. The daily MACD is about to form a golden cross; if the Federal Reserve is dovish tonight, it will confirm the weekly level upward wave segment.
Trading volume: During the rise phase, trading volume expanded to an average level of 1.8 times (approximately $6.5 billion), and during the consolidation phase, it shrank to 1.2 times, indicating a healthy volume-price relationship. If trading volume can continue to expand to over $8 billion when breaking $95000, the main rising trend will be confirmed.
3. Key levels and strategies
• First support: $92500 (current consolidation central level)
• Second support: $90500 (coinciding with 4-hour MA20 and integer level)
• First resistance: $94500 (has broken through, needs to stabilize)
• Second resistance: $96000 (2021 high point area, strong resistance)
• Third resistance: $100000 (dual psychological and technical level)
Operational strategy:
• Holders: Continue to hold above $92500, reduce positions by 30% if it breaks below
• For those holding cash: Wait for a pullback to the 91500-92500 range before entering, avoiding chasing highs
• Breakout chasing: If it breaks above $96000 with volume, it can be chased, with a stop loss set below $94500
3. Ethereum deep analysis: Ecosystem recovery and strong technical resonance
1. Price behavior: Standard continuation of bullish trend
Ethereum also played out the classic script of 'first suppress then uplift and then consolidate' yesterday:
• White session: Narrow fluctuations around $3100, with volatility at only 1.2%
• Evening session: After a minimum drop to $3097, it quickly rebounded, with a difference of only $3 between the minimum and the opening price, rejecting deep pullbacks
• Surge: Reached a maximum of $3396, with an increase of 9.6%, highly synchronized with Bitcoin's increase (9.8%)
• Consolidation: Currently fluctuating around $3300, with $3300 becoming a dividing line for bulls and bears
This price behavior indicates:
• ETH/BTC exchange rate stable: Maintained in the 0.034-0.035 range, no independent weakening observed
• Buying initiative: During the rise, buy orders consumed sell orders, rather than gradually pushing higher
• Funds within the ecosystem: L2 ecosystem TVL increased by 3.2%, indicating on-chain funds are actively increasing ETH exposure
2. Technical structure: Risk at neckline and strong support coexist
Moving average indicators: 4-hour MA60 (approximately $3150) and MA120 (approximately $3080) form a golden cross, with strong mid-term support. Daily MA20 crosses above MA60, confirming an upward trend.
Key structure: Price shows signs of forming a neckline pattern at high levels. If it breaks below the $3280-$3300 range, a small double top may form, increasing adjustment risks; if it continues to stabilize above $3300, it confirms the continuation of bulls.
Trading volume: During the rise phase, trading volume reached an average of 1.6 times daily (about $18 billion), and during the consolidation phase, it shrank to 1.1 times, consistent with healthy rising characteristics.
3. Ecosystem driving factors: Dual driving forces of fundamentals and technicals
Fusaka upgrade effect: After L2 transaction fees decreased, the daily transaction volume of Arbitrum increased from 850,000 to 1,200,000 (+41%), and Optimism increased from 620,000 to 910,000 (+47%). Increased on-chain activity directly raises ETH destruction volume, averaging 1,780 destroyed per day in December, with deflationary pressure continuing.
ETF expectations: After the approval of ETH spot ETF, it is expected to attract $7-10 billion of incremental funds in the first year. Institutions have currently embedded positions through the futures market, with CME ETH futures open interest reaching $8.2 billion, a historical high.
Deflation model: Staked ETH reached 34.6 million (28.7%), with destruction + staking locking reducing the annual net supply growth rate to **-0.18%**, reinforcing the narrative of scarcity.
4. Tonight's focus: How will the Federal Reserve's decision affect subsequent trends?
Tonight's press conference by Powell will be a decisive factor for the short-term direction:
Dovish scenario: If a clear rate cut path for 2025 is established, BTC will test $96000-$98000, ETH will challenge $3500-$3600
Neutral scenario: If the 'data-dependent' tone is maintained, the market will enter high-level volatility, with BTC in the $92500-$94500 range and ETH in the $3280-$3380 range
Hawkish scenario: If inflation risk is emphasized, BTC may pull back to $90500, ETH tests the $3150 support
On-chain data monitoring: Focus on the first hour after FOMC:
• Stablecoin inflow: If USDT/USDC net inflow to exchanges exceeds $200 million, it indicates strong willingness to enter the market
• Contract holdings: If OI rises instead of falling, it indicates that bulls are increasing their positions, and the trend continues
• Whale movements: If net inflow to exchanges turns negative, it indicates whales are bottom-fishing
5. Strategy recommendations: Response framework for different types of investors
1. Spot holders (cost < $90000)
• Strategy: Continue holding, reduce positions by 20% if it breaks below $92500 to lock in profits
• Stop loss: Strictly set at $89000 (coinciding with 4-hour MA60 and integer level)
2. Contract traders (leverage > 5x)
• Strategy: Immediately reduce leverage to below 3x, or close positions and wait for the resolution results
• Risk control: BTC stop loss set at $91800, ETH stop loss set at $3250
3. Those waiting with cash
• Strategy: If it stabilizes above $94500/$3380 one hour after the decision, it can chase 30% of the position
• Buy on pullback: If it pulls back to $91500/3280 after the decision, establish 50% position
6. Real-time service commitment: Continuous tracking of core signals
Follow Yibo, we will continue to track for you:
• Federal Reserve policy landing: Immediate interpretation of Powell's wording and changes in the dot plot
• Institutional fund flows: Monitor ETF subscriptions and redemptions, CME position changes
• On-chain data anomalies: Large whale transfers, exchange inflows, stablecoin minting
• Strategy dynamic updates: Adjust layouts and targets based on market changes
Investment maxim: In the crypto market, understanding the macro is 10 times more important than predicting candlesticks. Tonight's decision will determine the market tone for December and even Q1 2025. Stay calm, strictly control risks, and real opportunities belong to those who are prepared.
Tonight's Federal Reserve decision, what scenario do you think it will be?
A. Dovish expectations ignite the market
B. Neutral balance, high-level volatility
C. Hawkish surprise triggers a pullback
Type your choice in the comments and explain your reason. The option with the highest votes will receive a detailed explanation of tomorrow's pre-market strategy!
Like and share this article to let more comrades seize the year-end market window!
Follow me for daily insights based on core data for market analysis and strategy foresight, helping you establish information advantages in structural markets! #BitcoinMarket #EthereumAnalysis #FederalReserveDecision #CryptoStrategy #OnChainData #加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 #美联储重启降息步伐 $BTC
