When Bitcoin launched its 17th tentative offensive at the $94,000 mark, Ethereum built a micro defensive structure around the $3,380 line. The entire cryptocurrency market is entering a typical "volatility compression-directional selection" critical state. This is not only a key node from a technical perspective but also a dual validation window for macro liquidity expectations and micro market structure. As an observer who has continuously tracked the market for eight years, this article will systematically deconstruct the current market landscape and provide professional traders with a Precision Trading framework that has a probabilistic advantage.
1. Market Review: Last night’s two precisely captured aerial confrontations
During yesterday's US market hours, the market presented a textbook-like "fake breakout - real retracement" structure. The Liangqiu team accurately grasped two high short layout opportunities:
First order strategy: When Bitcoin reaches $92,000 and Ethereum hits $3,180, anticipate a weakening of breakout momentum, layout short positions, and trigger stop-loss at $92,000 and $3,180. Although this order incurred a loss, it validated the "price behavior intensity of the key resistance level," providing calibration data for subsequent layouts.
Next order strategy: Re-enter around $94,000 and $3,340 at dawn, add shorts at $3,380. The market is expected to rise and fall back to $91,900 and $3,280, capturing a swing space of $2,100 and $100. The core of this order's success lies in "identifying the volume divergence on the second peak" — prices hit new highs while trading volume shrinks to 1.2 times the average, MACD histogram shows contraction, and KDJ enters the overbought zone (>85).
This "first order calibration, second order heavy positions" iterative model reflects the dynamic adaptability of professional traders to the market. On the eve of the Fed's decision, volatility premium and directional uncertainty create a double squeeze, and only through a strategy of testing small positions + confirming large positions can a balance be achieved between risk control and profit capture.
Two, in-depth technical analysis: Hidden concerns and opportunities under bullish arrangement.
Bitcoin: The game between moving average golden cross and KDJ divergence.
Bullish signal:
• Moving average system: Prices run above MA60 (around $89,500) and MA120 (around $88,200), and MA60 crosses above MA120 to form a golden cross, resonating bullishly with MACD above the zero axis. This is a classic structure indicating an upward mid-term trend.
• Price position: Stabilized above $91,500, this price level is the central point of a small platform since December 5 and has strong support attributes.
Hidden concern signal:
• KDJ indicator: Current K value (78) and D value (72) are in the overbought zone, and a top divergence pattern has emerged — prices hit new highs, but KDJ did not synchronize with new highs. This suggests short-term bullish momentum is weakening, and if the decision is below expectations, it may trigger a rapid pullback.
• Trading volume: The trading volume at the $94,555 high is only $5.4 billion, less than 1.5 times the average volume, and the volume-price divergence suggests the validity of the breakout needs to be verified.
Key conclusion: The technical aspect presents a "strong trend + weak momentum" combination, and the directional choice completely relies on the Fed's marginal catalyst. Prior to the announcement of the decision, any heavy position is equivalent to gambling.
Ethereum: independent market driven by ecological recovery.
Bullish signal:
• Moving average arrangement: MA60 (around $3,150) and MA120 (around $3,080) are arranged bullishly, and prices stabilize above $3,250; this price level is the value center after the "Fusaka upgrade."
• Ecological driver: After L2 fees dropped by 60%, Arbitrum's daily active addresses grew by 41%, directly boosting on-chain destruction to an average of 1,850 ETH per day, strengthening the deflation narrative.
Hidden concern signal:
• Resistance dense area: The $3,400-$3,450 range has been the connect-the-dots for three high points since September, with stop-loss positions exceeding $12 billion. A breakout requires trading volume to exceed $22 billion.
• Funding rate: Current funding rate +0.015%, indicating excessive crowding among bulls. If the decision leans hawkish, it may trigger a long squeeze.
Key conclusion: ETH has a stronger fundamental drive compared to BTC, but the technical aspect also faces a solid barrier at $3,400. Whether it breaks or not depends on the dual catalysts of "dovish signals from the Fed + warming ETF expectations."
Three, key price level defense system: Three-dimensional mapping of resistance and support.
Bitcoin: three layers of resistance and three layers of support.
Resistance level:
1. First resistance: $94,000-$94,500: the upper edge of the current consolidation platform, a breakout requires trading volume ≥ $7 billion.
2. Second resistance: $95,000: integer psychological level, also the starting point of the flash crash on December 1, with a dense stop-loss position.
3. Third resistance: $96,000-$98,000: Historical high point region from December 2021, a strong resistance zone; breaking through requires a fundamental shift.
Support level:
1. Core support: $91,000-$91,500: The intersection of MA60 and MA20, the lifeline for bulls and bears; breaking this indicates a weakening trend.
2. Important support: $90,000: integer level and psychological barrier, institutional accumulation cost area.
3. Ultimate support: $88,500-$89,200: the lower edge of the platform on December 5; if broken, a medium-term adjustment begins.
Ethereum: double resistance and double support.
Resistance level:
1. First resistance: $3,400-$3,450: Downward trend line pressure since September, a crucial fortress that bulls must conquer.
2. Second resistance: $3,500-$3,550: The high point of the August rebound, breaking through opens up space to $4,000.
Support level:
1. Core support: $3,200-$3,250: The intersection of MA60 and MA120, ecological value floor.
2. Important support: $3,150: integer level and psychological support, spot ETF expected anchoring price.
Four, Precision Trading Framework: high win-rate operation plan.
Plan A: The night before the decision (December 10, 20:00 - December 11, 03:00).
Core principle: Reduce positions, control risk, wait for signals.
• Position: Total position ≤ 40%, with 70% allocated to BTC/ETH spot and 30% held in USDT.
• Operation: Place BTC long orders between $91,500 and $92,000, with stop loss set below $91,000; place ETH long orders between $3,270 and $3,290, with stop loss set below $3,250.
• Logic: These are the last lines of defense for bulls before the decision. If broken, it indicates the market has priced in a hawkish outcome, and long positions should be abandoned.
Plan B: During the decision (December 11, 03:00-04:00).
Core principle: Do not chase orders, do not guess direction, wait for the market to digest.
• Operation: Suspend all manual trading, observe the market's immediate reaction to the decision.
• Key signal:
• If BTC stabilizes above $94,500 within 1 hour, and trading volume > $7 billion, 20% of the position can be pursued, target $96,000.
• If BTC falls below $91,500, with trading volume > $6 billion, a short position of 15% can be taken, target $90,000 (strict stop-loss at $92,500 required).
• Risk control: Volatility may exceed 80% during this phase; any leverage is dangerous.
Plan C: After the decision (after December 11, 04:00).
Core principle: Follow the trend, confirm with increased positions, and move stop-loss.
• Dovish scenario: After entering the position, set the take-profit level at the cost price +3% to ensure principal safety.
• Hawkish scenario: After stop-loss, wait for a re-confirmation at $90,500 (BTC)/$3,150 (ETH) before considering whether to reverse and go long.
Five, core risk warnings and trading discipline.
1. Policy risk: The Fed's decision has the possibility of "hawkish rate cuts" (cutting rates but with a tough tone), which will lead to a flash crash of "good news priced in."
2. Liquidity risk: Shortened trading hours during the holidays may cause market makers to narrow quotes or widen spreads, increasing slippage costs.
3. Emotional risk: Social media will be flooded with noise before and after the decision; block all KOL views, focusing only on on-chain data and official information.
4. Discipline rules: Single trade loss must not exceed 2% of the total account, daily loss must not exceed 5%; exceeding limits results in a mandatory 24-hour trading halt.
Six, conclusion: Finding certainty amidst uncertainty.
Tonight's FOMC decision is not gambling, but a stress test for the trading system. Your position management, risk control discipline, and emotional control ability will undergo the most real test in the next 12 hours.
Remember what Liangqiu said: Analysis and strategies are for reference only, risks are to be borne by yourself. Article review and release lack timeliness; specifics are subject to real-time updates. In the crypto market, surviving is the only way to talk about profits; risk control is always the top priority.
Tonight's FOMC decision, what are your positions and strategies?
A. Full position before the decision, betting on dovish.
B. Flat position, waiting for clear direction.
C. Use options strategy to go long on volatility.
D. Only hold spot, ignore short-term fluctuations.
Post your choice in the comments and explain your reasoning. The most liked comment will receive tomorrow's pre-market in-depth review and operational plan!
Forward this article to let more comrades establish risk awareness and stop blind gambling.
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