On the evening of December 10, there is considerable bearish logic for gold, influenced by fundamental negative factors related to Federal Reserve policy and technical signals indicating pressure and a pullback. The specific analysis is as follows:

1. Hawkish negative factors hidden in policy: Although the market has already highly priced in a 25 basis point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, the probability of a "hawkish rate cut" is extremely high. The U.S. labor market is robust, with job vacancies in October far exceeding expectations, showing strong economic resilience. Powell is likely to emphasize inflation risks after the meeting, setting a higher threshold for subsequent easing, which will weaken the low-interest rate support logic for gold. Additionally, the uncertainty of the policies from the popular candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, Hassett, raises concerns among Wall Street investors that his aggressive rate-cutting stance may lead to policy turmoil, prompting some investors to take profits. The net long positions of COMEX gold speculators have seen their first reduction after three consecutive weeks of increase.

2. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields suppress gold prices: Positive employment data from the U.S. has driven the dollar index to strengthen for two consecutive trading days, closing at 99.21 points, while the dollar has a negative correlation with gold. An appreciation of the dollar will weaken the attractiveness of gold priced in dollars. At the same time, U.S. Treasury yields have reached a three-month high, increasing the competitiveness of interest-bearing assets like bonds, further squeezing the investment space for gold, which is a non-yielding asset, creating a dual pressure on gold prices.

3. Technical signals indicate a pullback: Gold prices have faced pressure multiple times around $4220, failing to effectively break through this resistance level. After quickly retreating from a high of $4260 last Friday, it formed an invalid upward pattern, with bears quickly reclaiming the rebound gains. The daily MACD red bars are shrinking, indicating weakened bullish momentum, while the 4-hour level has shown a divergence between volume and price. The Bollinger Bands are continuously narrowing, presenting an overall trend of difficulty in moving the center of gravity upward amid fluctuations. Once the key support level of $4200 is broken, there is a high probability of a drop to the $4180 - $4170 range. #黄金