The FOMC meeting at 3 AM tonight is a matter of life and death for the crypto world. Let’s not hold back—here’s my straightforward opinion: a 25 basis point rate cut is inevitable, but the key is what Powell says and the direction indicated by the dot plot.
The market is now fixated on the 'hawkish rate cut'—offering you candy while slamming the table to warn 'don’t expect another cut next year', which is a cold splash of water. The Federal Reserve is currently split like two opposing teams, one calling for more liquidity and the other fearing that too much liquidity could lead to problems; this kind of twisted decision-making is starting to make the market doubt the 'authority of the central bank'.
The core points are two: whether Powell continues to soothe the market as a dove, or suddenly turns hawkish to scare away the bulls; the dot plot directly tells us that the number of rate cuts in 2026 indicates 'good times are coming to an end'.
The market has long voted with its feet—Ethereum's big bullish candle from 3100 to 3400 last night was not a coincidence. Regulatory easing allows banks to engage in cryptocurrency risk hedging, and a compliant channel for large funds has opened; institutions directly withdrew 9,000 ETH, worth nearly 30 million dollars, and the spot exchanges are quickly being emptied, which is clearly a stockpiling move in anticipation of a rise. Although Bitcoin surged to 94,000, it mainly relied on leveraged funds, with weak spot buying, the foundation is very shaky. What’s more critical is that if Bitcoin hits 96,000, 436 million dollars in short positions will be liquidated, which serves as both fuel for the rise and a source of severe volatility.
Let's not get too abstract on the technical front, focus on a few key price levels: Bitcoin 92,000 to 94,000 is a solid ceiling; until there is a clear volume breakout, treat it as a rebound; 91,500 to 92,000 is a strong support and resistance line, if it holds, then it can push to 100,000, 88,000 is a critical support level; if broken, the rebound structure collapses; the CME futures gap at 89,500 has an 80% probability of being filled, and the price naturally has a pullback force.
The Ethereum attack signal is at 3,400; once it stabilizes, the next target is 3,800, with short-term support at 3,250. As long as the trend holds, the bottom line is 3,100; falling back means the short-term offensive is over.
I, Zhuge, will speak frankly tonight: The two hours before and after the announcement are a meat grinder of emotions and algorithms, and the volatility can be terrifying. Don't heavily invest and gamble on the direction; it's no different from gambling. The key is to watch for the authenticity of the breakout—if Bitcoin stabilizes above 94,000 or Ethereum holds above 3,400 for an hour without falling back, then a light position can be taken; if it spikes and then quickly drops back, forming a false breakout, be alert for a counterattack. Remember, 'buy on rumors, sell on facts' is a script that never goes out of style in the financial circle, even if Powell leans dovish, the market may still retreat due to over-exhaustion of good news.
In short, fasten your seatbelt tonight, don't get swayed by emotions, keep an eye on key price levels and the authenticity of breakouts, and take it steady! This is the last big opportunity of the year; friends who want to turn things around shouldn't miss it again! Zhuge is ready!
