Good morning, traders and investors.
In the early morning, the Federal Reserve's decision was made, and many must have been watching the market for the trend. The impact of this meeting on the crypto circle is by no means as simple as "interest rate cuts = increases." Brother Liang summarized it in one sentence: The central bank handed over a piece of candy, but the instruction manual says: there may be a long time of bitter medicine to take afterwards.
This "candy" is indeed sweet enough, and it has two layers:
The first layer is the expected interest rate cut: 25 basis points, lowering the interest rate range to 3.5%-3.75%. The market had already priced this in, so it was not surprising and can be considered routine.
The second layer is the slightly above-expected "money printing": The Federal Reserve announced that starting this month, it will purchase $40 billion in Treasury bonds each month. This is equivalent to directly injecting liquidity into the financial system. As soon as the news broke, both the stock market and Bitcoin rebounded, thanks to the stimulating effect of this short-term "syrup."
But what is the bitter pill? It is hidden in the "subtext" of the Fed.
The latest dot plot shows that the Fed expects to keep interest rates almost unchanged throughout 2026. This translates to: short-term sweeteners, but don't fantasize that borrowing costs will significantly decline over the next two years; the tightening spell must continue.
More importantly, the Fed has made it clear: this round of bond purchases is not the 2008-style quantitative easing (QE), but a technical operation to temporarily alleviate liquidity tensions in the banking system, which could stop as early as next year.
What does this mean for the crypto market? How should we respond?
Short-term (next few weeks): You can be happy, but don't get drunk.
Improvement in liquidity can indeed boost the sentiment for risk assets, and Bitcoin and mainstream coins will likely experience a rebound.
But beware of the "good news is fully priced in" trap. Rate cuts have already been fully anticipated by the market, and the rebound is more emotional than a trend reversal. If Bitcoin cannot effectively stabilize above $90,000, it indicates that bullish forces are not decisive, and the market may only be a flash in the pan.
Operating suggestions:
• For those with positions: Use the rebound to optimize holdings, take profits on some of the gains.
• Short sellers: If you want to participate, make sure to use a small position, enter and exit quickly, treat it as a short-term emotional gamble, and avoid treating it as the starting point of a bull market with full positions.
Mid to long-term (next few months to 1-2 years): Patiently lower expectations.
"High interest rates lasting longer" is a pill that will be released slowly. The market will eventually realize that the era of cheap funds will not return quickly, which will suppress the upward ceiling of all risk assets. Future markets will be bumpier, rather than smooth sailing.
Market narratives will fully differentiate: A broad-based bull market is unlikely to reappear, and funds will become exceptionally picky. Bitcoin, with its positioning as "digital gold" and ETF funds supporting it, is relatively more resilient; Ethereum also has its ecological support. However, many small coins that lack actual value will face enormous pressure if they rely solely on liquidity speculation.
Operating suggestions:
• Slow down the investment pace, abandon the fantasy of "striking it rich in one step."
• Focus on core assets, using a systematic investment strategy to gradually allocate BTC and ETH.
• Altcoins must wait for a clear trend before considering, and positions must be extremely light.
Summary: Short-term optimism, while mid to long-term is like walking on thin ice.
The Fed's operation this time can be described as "schizophrenic"—short-term sweet dates (rate cuts + bond purchases), but the slap (long-term high interest rates) is already raised.
Our strategies must also split accordingly:
• Short-term: Moderately optimistic, follow the emotional waves for short-term trades.
• Mid to long-term: Maintain a calm mindset, and prepare for a more complex environment with higher capital costs.
Don't be blinded by a temporary rise; always remember, that "pill" is still ahead. Protect your principal, stay calm, and wait until the trend becomes truly clear before adding positions.
What do you think about this round of "splitting" rate cuts? Can the short-term rebound be sustained? Against the backdrop of "high interest rates becoming long-term," will you adjust your cryptocurrency asset allocation strategy?
Feel free to share your deep insights in the comments section. If this article has helped clarify your thoughts, please follow @币圈掘金人 for the latest market interpretations, and don't forget to share it with friends who are also interested in macro and cryptocurrency market opportunities. Together, we will seek our own certainties amidst uncertainties.#加密市场反弹 #美联储FOMC会议 #美联储降息预期升温 $BTC
