12.11 Market Analysis

Last night, the Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and Powell clearly stated that there would be no further discussion on raising rates in the future, only the question of "when to continue lowering rates."

This positive news drove BTC up to $94,000, but it was quickly sold off by some funds that were pessimistic about the market outlook, causing the price to retreat to the $91,000 range.

This indicates that $94,000 remains a key level that BTC must stabilize at before a rally towards $100,000.

From the on-chain structure, two major signals are worth noting:

1. Stablecoins continue to flow out of exchanges—sentiment is weak, and active buying is limited.

2. BTC continues to flow out of exchanges—whales and institutions are accumulating at lower prices, with a holding period of over 3 years.

This means that we are still in a phase of chip turnover, which is expected to last for 1–2 months. Once the turnover is complete, combined with policies and the interest rate reduction cycle, there is a high probability that 2026 will see an unexpected market rally.

Tonight at 20:00 Tencent Meeting (681 792 313), Fengchun will analyze future market opportunities.

Risk Warning:

The above is a market research viewpoint and does not constitute investment advice. Please make independent judgments, strictly control positions, and avoid emotional trading.

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