Let's get to the conclusion first: the market outlook is bearish.
The Fed's rate cut of 25 basis points aligns with market expectations, especially as Powell's speech still revolves around the inflation outlook with upward risks, while employment presents downward risks. The overall economic outlook remains within a reasonable and controllable range, and we need to continue waiting for further observations. The expression is rather conventional, and the market needs to further observe the subsequent inflation and employment data. Therefore, the next rate decision may likely maintain the current status.
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Personally, I believe the impact of this speech can only be described as mediocre, thus the market shows a pattern of rising first and then falling. Meanwhile, the current positive news is also about to end, leading to risks of negative impacts after positive news is realized.
From the liquidation map, it shows that BTC, ETH, and SOL are all predominantly bearish and densely packed, indicating that the market generally expects a decline. However, in ETF spot institutional funds, there has been a net inflow of: $36.8 million, $1.1 million, and $4.9 million. Although it is a net inflow, the overall trading volume is still relatively low, indicating that institutions remain cautious in the short term.
Currently, the market is still in a downtrend, with Ethereum and most altcoins again following the market correction, and the rebound strength is limited. Therefore, we need to pay attention to where the market will stop falling. The short-term range for BTC is between 88000-92000, for ETH is between 3120-3320, and for SOL is between 126-135.
Short-term contract trading strategies:
BTC short at 91500 or enter on the rise, increase positions at 93000, take profit in batches at 98500.
ETH short at 3300 or enter on the rise, increase positions at 3400, take profit in batches at 3150.
SOL long at 134 or enter on the rise, increase positions at 140, take profit in batches at 128.
Friendly reminder:
1. Stop-loss recommendations should be set according to personal actual liquidation price and the principal loss that one can bear.
2. Don't be greedy; securing profits is better. It’s better to take a small loss than to resist a position. If the direction is correct, continue to hold.
