Yesterday, the FOMC followed the script I mentioned earlier: a rate cut of 25bp, but Powell again poured "hawkish cold water" on the market, stating things like "no preset path," "inflation risks remain," and "disagreements among committee members are increasing," directly framing the rate cut in a hawkish tone. The market immediately rejected this, and risk assets suddenly cooled off.

This FOMC is highly likely to be:
Powell will cut rates by 25bp, but the language will be hawkish—a standard "hawkish rate cut."
The rate cut is for you, but it will come with a phrase like "2025 won't be smooth," to temper market sentiment.
What does this mean for the market?
1) US stocks / crypto short-term: likely to see a wave of "buy the expectation, sell the fact."
After the good news lands, a sentiment pullback is normal; especially with a "hawkish rate cut," the market will interpret this as: "The rate cut is for you, but don’t expect to celebrate for too long."
2) But don’t get the direction wrong: as long as inflation doesn’t explode, the Fed will ultimately protect employment.
Expectations of fiscal stimulus + sticky inflation mean Powell must remain tough, and the pace of rate cuts has to be slow,
but the macro direction hasn’t changed.
3) Here comes the key point: what we really need to be wary of is not the Fed, but
→ the Japanese interest rate meeting around the 19th.
This is the potential black swan.
If Japan suddenly signals a more hawkish stance, global carry trade will be forced to close positions in the short term.
This could lead to a quick sell-off of risk assets, but it’s mostly a temporary technical shock.
And this kind of "carry trade liquidation-style sharp drop" is actually one of the most noteworthy entry points in this round of market movement! #加密市场反弹 $BTC