I have experienced days when my heart raced while staring at candlestick charts; now I prefer to be greedy when the market is fearful and quietly exit when the market is greedy.
In the winter of 2016, Bitcoin crashed in the middle of the night. At that time, I had just started in the industry and watched my account shrink, sweating profusely. Over the past eight years, I have grown from a novice who believed in technical indicators to a female analyst managing my own crypto fund.
My biggest realization is that the key to making a profit in the crypto world is not predicting market trends, but knowing how to combat instincts. The fears that wake you up in the middle of the night and the impulses that make you FOMO into buying are the true enemies.
Today, I want to share some unconventional practical insights, all lessons learned with real money.
One, rapid drops and slow rises are traps; slow drops and rapid rises are opportunities.
When assets fall rapidly and then rise slowly, it's often the manipulators harvesting profits. The kind of situation that slowly declines and then suddenly surges is where the real meat can be eaten.
In the summer of 2020, during the DeFi craze, UNI fell from $4 to $2.5, and the market was filled with wailing. I instead used a foolish method of averaging down every time it dropped 20%, which controlled my average cost around $3.1. When UNI soared to $40 the following year, this trade brought over 12 times the return.
On the contrary, when faced with a market situation of 'doubling in a single day + massive sell-off,' I will leave the market immediately—this is a typical signal of manipulators flipping the table; those who cling to the battle will eventually become the leeks.
Two, trading volume can lie; hidden dangers lurk in quiet markets.
When popular cryptocurrencies trend on social media, it is often the most dangerous moment. In 2021, when Dogecoin went viral, I noticed its on-chain transaction volume shrank for seven consecutive days, diverging from the price surge, so I decisively liquidated my position. Sure enough, three days later, the price was halved.
Market tops are never noisy; they are sudden silences. When everyone is talking about 'financial freedom,' liquidity is actually quietly drying up. Real opportunities often appear in neglected value valleys.
Three, the bottom is '磨' out, not '猜' out.
In 2018, Bitcoin consolidated at $3,200 for two weeks, with trading volume dropping to a minimum. I insisted on a daily investment of $100, and after six months, I controlled my cost to below $4,000, ultimately profiting handsomely in the subsequent main uptrend.
A sudden rise of more than 30% during a bear market is a trap to lure in buyers; the real bottom needs time to refine. I never attempt to guess the market bottom, but instead, through a batch buying strategy, let the market help me find the true bottom.
Four, eliminate the 'game changer' mentality and learn to be a market observer.
I used to be obsessed with dozens of technical indicators, but later realized: candlesticks are just shadows of emotions. The manipulators fear two types of people: those who dare to pick up blood-stained stocks during a crash and those who can take profits in batches during a surge.
When SOL dropped from $260 to $80, I added to my position every time it fell by 20%, and when it rebounded to $150, I sold in three batches. This method's profit was 30% higher than those who stubbornly held on. This is not some profound technique; it's simply overcoming the greedy instinct of 'having to buy at the lowest point.'
Five, admitting 'I don't understand' is the real entry point.
Over the past eight years, I have deeply realized: when one consciously 'awakens,' it is often the eve of a crisis. Now, I will incorporate 'I don't understand' into my trading rules:
When moving averages are not in a bullish arrangement, wait in cash; if a single-day drawdown exceeds 5%, automatically reduce the position by half; withdraw the principal when profits exceed 50%, and let the profits continue to roll.
Mechanical execution of rules allows emotions to take a back seat. My trading plan has no 'feelings,' only clear triggering conditions and action instructions.
The essence of survival: probability and mindset
Surviving in the crypto world is essentially a game of probability. Short-term success may rely on luck, but long-term success depends solely on systems and discipline.
I don't strive to win every time, only to ensure that I earn enough when I win and lose as little as possible when I lose. This is the most precious wealth brought to me by eight years of ups and downs.
Do you have any memorable experiences or lessons in the crypto world? Feel free to share your stories in the comments.
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