Two o'clock in the morning, this is already the third cup of tea for the evening, I’m looking at the chart $INJ - price 5.42, down almost five percent for the day. And you know what caught my attention? Not the drop itself, but HOW it happened. There was a sharp pump to a maximum of 6.11, then a similarly sharp drop to a minimum of 5.30. The range is fifteen percent for the day. This is not an organic movement of the market. Someone big is playing, and we are all just watching their dance.
I'm looking at the moving averages - weekly 5.43, monthly 5.62, long-term 5.63. The price is trading below all three, which is technically a bearish signal. But here's what's interesting - all three moving averages converge at one point, literally within a few cents of each other. This is called compression. And after compression, a sharp movement usually follows. The question is only - up or down?
December 2025, and if we believe the news, @Injective continues to expand aggressively. I saw an announcement today about new integrations with several large protocols. I won’t name names because I’m not sure of the details, but the trend is obvious - the ecosystem is growing. And here arises a dissonance between the technical chart, which looks weak, and the fundamental news, which sounds bullish.
I think about how this dissonance is a classic situation for smart money. Retail looks at the chart, sees red candles, panics, and sells. Institutions look at news, ecosystem growth metrics, prospects - and calmly buy on the dip. And in a few months, retail will be kicking themselves when the price flies higher, and institutions lock in profits.
I remember a year ago there was a similar situation with one project. The chart looked terrible, everyone screamed that the project was dead. Then news came out about major partnerships, and within a month the price made multiples. Those who held through the drawdown or bought at the bottom got rich. Those who sold in panic were left with nothing. History constantly repeats itself, just with different actors.
I’m looking at the volume chart - the average volume over the past five days is almost 50 thousand tokens, over ten days about 54 thousand. Now less than 15 thousand has passed, the volume is below average. After a spike in activity, there is calm. This could be a good sign - after panic selling, the market has calmed down, now a catalyst is needed for the next movement.
I recently read an analysis about #Injective, where they examined their TVL and usage metrics. The numbers are growing slowly but steadily. There is no explosive growth, but there is also no decline. For an infrastructure project, this is a good sign - it means they are building a foundation, not chasing short-term hype. Rapid growth is often unsustainable, slow growth is usually healthier.
Technically, there is an interesting moment right now. The price has found support at the level of 5.30 - there was a minimum, and from it, the rebound began. If this level holds, we could see consolidation in the range of 5.30-5.62 with a subsequent breakout upwards. If we break down - the next support is somewhere around 5.00, a psychologically important level.
I am contemplating the context. The whole market is currently in uncertainty. Bitcoin is fluctuating, altcoins even more so. During such periods, even strong projects drop along with everything. This does not reflect their fundamentals; it’s just market dynamics. When the next wave of growth begins - strong projects will grow more than all.
I recall the concept from trading - "trend is your friend until it ends." The trend is your friend until it ends. Right now, the short-term trend is downward, that's a fact. But the long-term trend is still upward when looking at monthly charts. The question is which trend is more important for your strategy. For a day trader - short-term. For a long-term investor - long-term.
I think about the news I saw about the development of the ecosystem. New derivative markets are launching, new types of orders are being added, cross-chain integrations are expanding. All this does not have an immediate effect on the price. But it builds a foundation for future growth. A house is not built in a day, but when it is built - it lasts for decades.
I'm looking at the candlestick pattern of the last few hours. After a large red candle that broke down, there are small candles with small bodies and long shadows. This is indecision, uncertainty. The market doesn't know where to go next. Buyers and sellers are in equilibrium. Such periods usually precede strong movements in either direction.
I remember a conversation with a trader who specializes in derivatives. He said that @Injective is one of the few blockchains where you can really trade complex instruments with decent liquidity and speed. Not just basic futures, but exotic options, cross-margin positions, complex strategies. This is important for a professional trader.
And here I realize - maybe the price of $INJ does not currently reflect the real value of what is being built. Because the market looks at short-term metrics - trading volumes, TVL, number of users. But does not consider the quality of these users. One professional trader, making millions in volume, is worth more than a thousand random users who came once and left.
I think about how the chart shows market emotions, not the project's fundamentals. Right now, the emotion is fear. People are afraid the decline will continue, so they sell. But fear is a bad advisor in investments. The best deals are usually made when it’s scary. When it’s comfortable - it’s usually already too late.
Technically, there is another interesting moment. The yellow moving average on the chart has begun to turn upwards after a long downward trend. This could be an early signal of a trend change. Not a guarantee, but a hint. If the price can hold above the weekly moving average of 5.43 - it will confirm that the bottom is behind.
I remember that in cryptocurrencies, not only technology matters, but also the narrative. What story does the project tell? #Injective tells a story about decentralized financial infrastructure for professionals. Not for the masses, but for those who really understand trading and finance. This is a narrower audience, but more valuable.
I'm looking at the volume of the last green candle - over 250 thousand tokens passed in one hour. This is the largest volume in the past day. Someone was clearly buying at the bottom. Smart money or desperate speculators trying to catch a knife? In a few days, we will find out.
I am contemplating the risks. The main risk right now is the overall market. If Bitcoin drops sharply, all altcoins will follow, regardless of their fundamentals. This is systemic risk, which cannot be avoided. The second risk is competition. Other blockchains are also developing derivative markets and are not standing still. The third risk is regulatory. Derivatives always attract regulatory attention.
But there are also growth factors. The derivatives market is huge, in traditional finance it amounts to trillions of dollars. If even a small part of this market comes to crypto - the growth potential is enormous. And the projects that build the right infrastructure now will be the main beneficiaries.
I close the chart, but thoughts keep swirling. $INJ is technically weak, fundamentally interesting. Short-term unclear, long-term potentially very promising. A classic situation where one must decide - trade the short-term movement or invest in the long-term story. Each approach has its pros and cons. For now, I'm just observing, waiting for confirmation of a reversal or further decline. Because in the current market, it’s better to miss the start of a movement than to catch a knife in the middle of a decline.
