In the world of cryptocurrencies, the returns of well-known figures always evoke emotions, and this time the center of attention has once again become Rafał Zaorski. In his latest conversation with Cashify, he offered a fresh, albeit rather pessimistic, perspective on the future of Bitcoin, which may come as a surprise to many beginners. Therefore, we will walk you through his most important statements and explain them in simple terms.
This is a good time to sort out the facts and understand what Zaorski meant.
Why is Zaorski talking about Bitcoin and the cyclicality of the market again?
In a conversation with Cashify, Zaorski emphasized that he has never been a great connoisseur of Bitcoin's repetitive cycles. He mentioned that he managed to short BTC a few times, but the market changed with the entry of large funds. Today, in his opinion, the market is created by institutions, and fewer retail investors. This is an important observation, as many beginners still think only about the classic 4-year halving structure.
Zaorski pointed out that Bitcoin has entered the world of global finance. In his opinion, this entry has changed the way the price reacts to events. This leads to the question of whether cycles are actually losing their significance? Here, Zaorski somewhat beats his chest and emphasizes that his earlier predictions have not always been accurate. He also noted that we should not treat his words as... a certain scenario.
In one of the main parts of the conversation, he said:
“I am an incorrigible pessimist and contrarian, so I think not... but life already verified me a year ago and I was wrong, so don't take my words too seriously. Sooner or later, some declines will come. I will try to short Bitcoin again.”
This statement shows his contrarian approach. Zaorski emphasizes that he still sees declines as rather inevitable.
How low can Bitcoin fall according to Zaorski?
One of the most frequently asked questions is how much can Bitcoin fall in a potential future bear market? Zaorski answered directly, though he admitted that such a scenario requires many conditions. According to him, declines could reach a level that sounds surprisingly low for many new investors. However, he noted that this would require a serious violation of the Strategy model (old MicroStrategy). This would also imply doubts regarding the utility of the asset itself.
Zaorski made a very decisive forecast, conditioned by extreme events:
“I think it could drop to at least 40,000–50,000 USD or even lower, but that would require completely tearing apart the MicroStrategy model and undermining the utility of Bitcoin itself.”
This opinion shows that his scenario assumes a strong shock to the fundamentals. But is such a shock realistic? This question remains open.
It's worth asking another question: are declines a natural element of the market? The answer is – yes, because the market always moves in cycles of growth and corrections. However, according to Zaorski, these cycles have less in common with the old repetitiveness today. Beginner investors should understand that predicting the market bottom is difficult. Therefore, it is worth considering various opinions, but ultimately building your own decisions.
Where does the strength of Bitcoin come from according to Zaorski?
Despite his pessimism, Zaorski pointed out one element that he believes strengthens Bitcoin. He claims that the asset is becoming part of financial reality. In his opinion, cash in circulation is decreasing, and AML and KYC regulations are becoming stricter. He also noted that the number of Bitcoins in circulation is realistically decreasing, as some wallets are lost forever.
Zaorski believes that the mechanism of limited supply strengthens the market. According to him, demand continues to grow as institutions are increasingly willing to invest. This raises questions – does Bitcoin really become more resilient? Do regulations actually strengthen its position? In his opinion, yes, because every loss of a coin reduces the available supply, which acts as a natural deflationary mechanism. Combined with growing popularity, this provides a stable foundation.
Below you will see the most important arguments that Zaorski presented as the foundation of BTC's strength:
increasingly strict AML and KYC regulations,
decreasing supply resulting from lost keys,
increasing demand from institutions,
decreasing amount of cash in the global system.
Zaorski summarized his thoughts in one sentence:
“Cyclicality is dying, institutions are in control, declines will come someday, but for now Bitcoin is immortal because it is simply becoming more and more useful and increasingly rare.”
This statement well captures his complex approach. It shows both pessimism and recognition of the asset's uniqueness.
To familiarize yourself with the latest cryptocurrency market analysis from BeInCrypto, click here.
