Did the Federal Reserve's 25-point rate cut lead to a crash? The pitfall of this "good news turning bad" actually had signals early on.
I originally thought that the Federal Reserve's money printing would save the market, and the crypto circle could benefit from it, but the market gave a big slap in the face—instead of the anticipated rate cut boost, it plummeted instead. It’s not that the market is unresponsive; there were three “invisible pitfalls” hidden in this operation that blew all expectations apart.
First, the Federal Reserve itself “internal conflict” occurred. This time, there were surprisingly 3 dissenting votes. On one hand, they were calling for a direct 50-point cut to save the market, while on the other hand, they stubbornly insisted on “absolutely not cutting.” In the end, they reluctantly settled on 25 points. This is not a unified decision-making process; it’s clearly internal chaos. If the central bank itself can’t reach a consensus, how can the market dare to rally? Who knows if it will change again tomorrow?
What's worse is that the “easing fantasy” has been punctured. When the dot plot came out, everyone was stunned—could there really only be one cut each year from 2026 to 2027? Compared to the 2020 madness of “continuous rate cuts + unlimited money printing,” this round of easing is like squeezing toothpaste. Everyone was waiting for the liquidity tap to reopen, but what they got was “the faucet only opened a tiny crack,” and expectations plummeted from the clouds into the mud.
Finally, the “smart money” has already run away. Standard Chartered just cut its BTC year-end target to 100,000 and clearly stated that the whales' money is almost spent; looking at ETFs, there have been several consecutive days of net outflows, and institutions have already voted with their feet. These funds are much smarter than retail investors; if they don’t come in to support the market and rely solely on retail investors, how can the market not collapse?
