Bitcoin, gold and silver continue to show strong trends this week. The three assets are now influenced by the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision that has already passed.
After policymakers lowered the interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, data shows that the stock market no longer exhibits any fear. This change was last seen in early October.
Bitcoin, gold, silver: Updated price forecast as calm returns to the stock market
The American stock market reached a new record on Thursday, December 11. Analysts predict that prices may continue to rise. This is due to the Fed's interest rate decision, a move that often strengthens the stock market.
Lower borrowing costs increase corporate profits, encourage investment, and raise the value of future earnings. At the same time, cheaper credit leads to higher consumption. Investors thus shift from bonds to stocks to achieve higher returns.
All of this improves liquidity and risk appetite, which often causes stock prices to rise in several sectors. This is why the stock market no longer signals fear.
At the same time, Bitcoin, gold, and silver also show increased optimism. Prices for XAU and XAG rise as the cost of holding gold and silver decreases, and inflation expectations rise.
Strong rise for the Bitcoin price as liquidity returns
Bitcoin's daily chart shows that the price is recovering within a clear rising channel, which formed after the sharp decline in early October.
Although BTC is still trading below the important moving averages (50 and 100 at $96,583 and $101,943 respectively), we see signs of stabilization. Each new low is higher than the previous one, which usually indicates an early recovery.
The green volume profiles show a large traded area around the 78.6% Fibonacci level. This suggests that buyers may defend support at $90,358.
That level could become an important turning point where the price may start the next rise.
A clear close above $90,358 could mean that BTC aims for stronger resistance between $98,000 and $103,000.
At the same time, the RSI indicator (Relative Strength Index) is neutral, meaning the price can move in either direction.
The AO indicator (Awesome Oscillator) shows that momentum is increasing, supporting a positive development.
However, the rise can only continue if the channel holds. If the price falls below the lower boundary of the channel, which coincides with the 78.6% Fibonacci at $90,358, selling pressure may increase. Then BTC risks dropping to the area between $86,000 and $80,600.
The main challenge is to reclaim the important moving averages, especially the 50-day and 100-day, near $96,583 and $101,943.
Historically, BTC often rises faster when the price breaks above these moving averages during periods of consolidation in the middle of the cycle.
BTC shows a controlled recovery, increased volume, and a clear channel. But we only get a strong confirming signal if the price rises above the psychological level of $100,000.
The rise in the gold price becomes stronger above the important resistance level
The four-hour chart for XAU/USD shows that the gold price is trying to break out of a long, compressed symmetrical triangle. This technical formation was formed after a sharp decline of $490 (-11.19%) earlier in the quarter.
Symmetrical triangles in an uptrend often act as continuation patterns. The price consolidates first and then continues upward. The gold breakout follows this pattern, and the price rises above the resistance line with clear strength.
The measurement from the triangle gives a potential target price around $4,720, which is just over 11% above the breakout point.
Right now, the gold price is stabilizing around $4,273, where the breakout candle closed. If gold stays above the upper boundary of the triangle, the positive trend remains.
Traders looking to take long positions in XAU/USD may wait for a successful retest of the upper trendline.
RSI is in the middle of the range but leans towards the positive at 65, indicating that gold is not yet oversold. RSI points upward, which is usually a good sign for continued rise.
The MACD lines (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) have crossed each other positively and are diverging, indicating increased buying power.
Support levels to watch are $4,180, $4,140, $4,098, and the deeper turning point $3,998, which marks the bottom of the last decline. If the gold price stays above these levels, buyers still have control.
It is also worth mentioning that the rise of gold corresponds with the broader trend in the economy: increasing geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation expectations, and strong demand from central banks.
Technically, the structure supports the possibility of reaching, and perhaps exceeding, recent peak levels.
The long-term cup-and-handle signal of the silver price points to a significant rise
The price of silver has shown one of the strongest long-term rises among commodities for many years, a significant long-term Cup & Handle breakout formation.
The cup starts at the top in 1980 and goes to the resistance in 2011, with a movement of 871%. The handle, which is smaller but still strong, forms between 2011 and 2024 and shows a movement of 152%. Both formations reach the same breakout line around $36, a level that silver has struggled to surpass for over 40 years.
The latest candlestick shows a clear, volume-heavy breakout far above this resistance, indicating a structural change rather than just a temporary peak.
When a commodity breaks a decade-long ceiling, price development can happen quickly as there is a lack of historical resistance.
However, RSI is in overbought territory (above 80), but in long-term breakouts, it usually indicates strength rather than exhaustion. MACD has clearly entered a positive area, confirming the upward trend.
If the breakout holds, the next important psychological level is $70. The area around $50, which was the peak in 1980/2011, has now become a support line.
Considering the long consolidation and the limited supply over several years in the silver market, a move above historical peaks cannot be ruled out.
However, silver has always been volatile, so a retest around $36 before continuing steadily upward is common.
