Bitcoin is heading towards Christmas 2025 in a weak but interesting position. The price is around 93,000 USD after several weeks of pressure. Four key charts show a market late in its correction, but a clear positive signal is still lacking.
Data shows three major forces. New buyers are facing significant losses, while new whales are selling. Major economic factors still control the price, even though the strength of direct purchases is quietly starting to return.
Short-term Bitcoin holders are facing major problems.
The first chart shows short-term holders' (STH) realized profit and loss. This group bought coins in recent months. Their 'realized price' is the average price of those coins.
Earlier in 2025, the STH group had good profits. They were on average 15-20% up when Bitcoin rose. Many took profits then, which created additional selling pressure at the top.
Today, the situation is reversed. Bitcoin trades below the realized price of the STH group, and they have about -10% loss. The histogram is red and shows one of the largest loss periods of the year.
This results in two effects.
In the short term, holders who are at a loss may sell at every rise. Many just want to exit when they reach their own entry price, which halts rises around their level.
But deep and prolonged losses are often seen late in a correction. It shows that weak hands have already lost a lot.
After a while, the selling power in this group runs out.
Historically, it often turns when the price rises above the realized price of the STH group again. Then, most forced selling is seen as complete and new buyers take over the supply.
Until that happens, one should still be cautious and expect the price to move sideways around the current level.
New Bitcoin whales just gave up
The second chart shows realized profit and loss for various whales. It distinguishes between 'new whales' and 'old whales'. New whales have made large purchases recently.
Yesterday, new whales made a loss of 386 million USD in one day. Their bar is a large negative spike in the chart. Several other large red bars are around the recent lows.
Old whales have a different development. Their profits and losses are smaller and more even. They are not selling out at the same pace as the new ones.
This pattern is common late in a correction. New whales often buy late, sometimes with loans or strong expectations. When the price moves against them, they sell first.
This extortion has an advantage in the long run. The coins are moving from weak to stronger hands or smaller buyers. Future sell offers from these whales decrease after such events.
In the short term, this could push the price down further. But in the longer term, the ownership base for Bitcoin becomes stronger.
The market becomes more resilient when stressed large holders are done with their selling.
Real interest rates still control Bitcoin
The third chart shows Bitcoin alongside two-year U.S. real interest rates, inverted. The real interest rate is the interest rate minus inflation. The movement of the series closely follows Bitcoin throughout 2025.
When real interest rates fall, the inverted line rises. Bitcoin tends to rise simultaneously as liquidity improves. Lower real interest rates make risky assets more attractive compared to safe bonds.
Since late summer, real interest rates have risen again. The inverted line turned downward, and Bitcoin followed suit. This shows that macroeconomic factors still drive the trend.
The Federal Reserve may lower rates, but it could still be insufficient. What matters is how the market believes real borrowing costs will develop. If inflation expectations decline faster than the nominal rate, real interest rates may still rise.
For Bitcoin, easier real conditions are likely required for a new strong rise to begin. Before the bond market prices this in, Bitcoin continues to face headwinds.
Spot Taker buyers are stepping in again
The fourth chart shows the 90-day Spot Taker CVD from major exchanges. CVD measures the net volume of market orders that cross the spread.
It shows whether buyers or sellers are more active.
For several weeks during the decline, Taker Sell dominated. Red bars filled the chart as sellers pressed prices down in the spot markets. The price therefore fell slowly.
Now the signal has reversed. The measure now shows Taker Buy, and green bars are visible again. Aggressive buyers now outnumber aggressive sellers in the spot markets.
This is an early but important change. Trend reversals often begin with such small changes. First, buyers come in, then the price stabilizes, and thereafter larger flows usually follow.
One day of data is never enough. If the green bars continue, it could indicate that genuine demand is back. It shows that the spot markets are absorbing the supply from STHs and capitulating whales.
What does this mean for the Bitcoin price heading into Christmas?
Overall, the four charts show a late correction, not a new bull market.
Short-term holders and new whales are facing significant losses and are still selling on strength. Macro real yields dampen risk appetite at the index level.
At the same time, some signs of recovery are appearing. As new whales give up, ownership among holders is being cleared.
The spot buyers are starting to return, which reduces the downward momentum.
Heading into Christmas 2025, Bitcoin looks set to move within a range, with a slightly negative direction, around 90,000 USD.
Declines to the middle or upper part of 80,000 USD are still possible if real yields remain high. A clearly positive reversal likely requires three signals:
First, the price must reclaim the average price of short-term holders and stay above it. Then, two-year real yields should decrease, making the economic situation easier.
Third, Taker Buy should continue to dominate as strong demand is seen in the spot markets.
Until all this happens, traders face an uneven market driven by macro data and locked-in holders. Long-term investors may see this as a planning phase rather than a time for significant risks.
