Bitcoin is approaching Christmas 2025 in a fragile but interesting position. The Bitcoin price is hovering around $93,000 after weeks of pressure. Four important charts show that the market is late in its correction, but still has not found a clear bullish signal.
The data shows three major forces. New buyers are heavily in the red, while new whales are capitulating. Macro-economics is still driving the price, even as spot purchases are gradually increasing again.
Short-term Bitcoin holders are experiencing significant pain
The first chart shows the realized profit and loss of short-term holders (STH). These are coins bought in the past months. Their 'realized price' is the average purchase price of these coins.
Earlier in 2025, STHs made significant profits. Their average position was up 15-20% when Bitcoin rose. This phase led to more profit-taking and increased selling pressure around the highs.
Now the picture has turned upside down. Bitcoin is trading below the STH realized price, and this group is about -10% in the red. The histogram is red on the chart, indicating one of the deepest loss periods of 2025.
This has two consequences.
In the short term, these holders who are in the red may sell at any uptick. Many just want their money back and will sell as soon as they can break even, which limits rises around their purchase zone.
But significant and prolonged loss phases are usually seen later in a correction. This means that weak hands have already suffered considerable damage.
At some point, the selling power of this group decreases.
In the past, the turning point occurred when the price rose back above the STH realized price. This means that most forced sales are over, and new demand absorbs the supply.
Until then, caution is advised with the current chart, and the price is likely to continue moving within the current range.
New Bitcoin whales have just given up.
The second chart shows realized profit and loss of whale groups. The chart distinguishes between 'new whales' and 'old whales'. New whales are large holders who have recently bought a lot.
Yesterday, new whales incurred a loss of $386 million in one day. On the chart, you see significant negative bars. Similar red outbursts are visible at other recent lows.
Old whales show a different pattern. Their realized profit and loss are smaller and more balanced. They do not sell or buy as massively as the new big players.
This pattern often occurs in the final phase of a correction. New whales often enter late, sometimes with leverage or through a strong narrative. When the price then falls, they are the first to exit.
Their capitulation has a structural effect. Coins shift from weak large hands to stronger holders or smaller buyers. The potential selling pressure from this group decreases after such events.
In the short term, these capitulation waves may still cause the price to drop. In the medium term, they create a healthier group of Bitcoin holders.
The market becomes more resilient once panicked large sellers have exited.
Real interest rates still guide Bitcoin.
The third chart overlays Bitcoin with the two-year real interest rate in the US, drawn inversely. Real interest is the interest rate after inflation. This chart moves almost in sync with BTC throughout 2025.
As real interest rates decline, the inverse chart line rises. Bitcoin often rises as well due to increased liquidity. A lower real interest rate makes risky assets like Bitcoin more attractive than safe bonds.
Since the end of summer, the real interest rate has risen again. The inverse chart is declining, and Bitcoin follows this downward path. This shows that macro factors are still determining the trend.
Rate cuts from the Federal Reserve do not directly solve this. The key is how the market expects real borrowing costs to develop. If inflation expectations decline faster than the official rate, real interest rates can even rise.
For Bitcoin, a new sustainable bull is only possible under easier real conditions. Until the bond market prices this in, there remains a macro headwind for BTC rallies.
Spot-taker buyers are stepping back in.
The fourth chart tracks the 90-day Spot Taker CVD on major exchanges. CVD measures the net volume of market orders crossing the spread.
This shows whether buyers or sellers have the upper hand.
For weeks during the decline, the regime was Taker Sell Dominant. Red bars filled the chart as sellers massively sold their coins on the spot markets. This matched the slow decline of the price.
Now the signal has flipped. The metric is now Taker Buy Dominant, with green bars returning. Aggressive buyers are now more present than aggressive sellers on the spot exchanges.
This is an early but important change. A trend reversal often begins with such small changes in market structure. First, buyers step in, then the price stabilizes, followed by larger parties.
One day of data is never enough. Only a sustained green period truly shows that real demand has returned. This proves that the spot market is absorbing the supply from short-term holders and capitulating whales.
What this means for the Bitcoin price towards Christmas.
All together, the four charts show a late-phase correction, not a new bull market.
Short-term holders and new whales are incurring significant losses and continue to sell at strong prices. Macro-economic real interest rates keep the risk appetite at index level limited.
At the same time, there are building blocks for recovery visible. The capitulation of new whales leads to a cleaner group of holders.
Spot taker buyers are returning, reducing the downward momentum.
Around Christmas 2025, Bitcoin seems to be moving in a range with a bearish tendency, around $90,000.
Dips towards the mid or high $80,000 remain possible if real rates stay high. A clear bull market likely requires three signals at once:
First, the price must rise above the realized price level of short-term holders and stay there. Second, the real interest rates over two years must decrease so that the financial conditions become easier.
Third, the Taker Buy dominance must be maintained, which confirms strong demand in the spot market.
Until that combination is there, traders face a volatile market due to macro data and stuck holders. Long-term investors might better see this period as a planning phase rather than a moment to take significant risks.
