The pitfalls in the crypto world are always dug by those 'impatient ones who watch the minute-by-minute changes' — the more anxious you are, the more precise the scythe becomes.
This morning, when I opened the 4-hour chart of BTC, I immediately saw this is the 'old fox's trick': the blue diamond-shaped consolidation area has shrunk to a narrow gap, and the price has been hovering around 92000 for nearly 12 hours, resembling how BTC tricked retail investors before the peak in 2021 when it was flat at 60,000 — but this time, it's the opposite, it's 'tricking retail investors to cut losses.'
Let's talk about today's 'clear news': last night the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut and hinted that 'there may be 3 more cuts next year,' which was supposed to be the 'super stimulant' for the crypto world. As a result, BTC performed a 'gap up and then down,' crashing from 94500 to 89000, triggering all the retail investors' stop-loss orders — this operation translates to: 'I know you're waiting to buy the dip with the rate cut, so I’ll dig a pit first to scare your chips out before I rise.' Even more absurd, the US CPI data will only be released tonight at 8 PM, and the main force started 'rehearsing panic' a day in advance, this cunningness is deeper than my opponents when I was trading contracts and got liquidated.
Let's take a look at the 'chip movement' behind the scenes: I checked the on-chain data, and the BTC balance on exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since 2018—only 1.8 million coins remain. The rest have either been locked in ETFs by institutions (BlackRock's BTC ETF saw a net inflow of 500 million dollars today) or pledged by retail investors to earn interest. What does this mean? The BTC available for sale in the market is almost gone! It's like the breakfast shop downstairs in your community, with only one last steamer of buns left; even if the boss shouts 'discount,' it's still a 'fake fall'—there's no worry about selling; they just wait for you to be in a hurry and sell the buns to the person behind who raises the price.
Let me share a personal experience: when BTC dropped to 15000, it was the same situation—when the Federal Reserve's rate hikes were finalized, the main players first dropped it to 13000 to bait shorts. I panicked and sold half of my position, and the next day it rebounded directly to 18000; it was futile to regret it. Today's BTC is exactly the same as back then: the fundamentals (Federal Reserve easing, ETF capital inflow) are getting better, but the price is deliberately grinding, just to filter out 'those who can't hold on.'
Looking at today's technical details: KDJ is stuck around 50 'playing dead,' RSI is neither overbought nor oversold, only the green bars of MACD are shrinking—this is a signal of 'bullish accumulation,' just like when you're playing a game, and the hero is gathering energy in the grass, looking like nothing is happening, but when they strike, they can take someone out in an instant. The chart indicates 'tonight's CPI may bait shorts,' and I dare to bet: before the CPI data is released tonight, BTC will likely drop to around 90000, scaring away the last batch of retail investors, and then with favorable data, it will break through the upper edge of the diamond, rushing towards 95000 or even 100000.
To be honest, after 8 years in the crypto world, I've seen too many people fall into the 'emotions of the fluctuation period'—yelling 'the bull is back' after a 2% rise, saying 'the bear is coming' after a 3% drop, but the ones who truly make big money are those who 'dare to buy when there's a false short squeeze and dare to sell at the peak.' Just like in 2020 when BTC dropped to 38000, everyone was fleeing, but those who dared to buy made 10 times their investment later.
The CPI data at 8 PM tonight is today's 'life and death game'—but for me, this is not a 'gamble' at all, it's a 'no-brainer': when it drops, I increase my position, when it rises, I just lay flat. The money in the crypto world has never been about making 'quick money from volatility,' but rather about making 'slow money from trends.'
Let me ask you one last question: if BTC drops to 90000 tonight, are you ready to cut your losses, or are you ready to buy the dip? Anyway, I added to my position at 91000 yesterday and have already closed my trading software—rather than anxiously staring at the minute chart, it's better to wait until tomorrow morning to see how much my account has increased.
Twelve years of financial journey, the exclusive secrets of crypto pioneers: insight into the market, steady progress, pay attention to how the heavenly masters teach you to steadily increase value; risks and opportunities coexist in investment; blind operations are a big taboo in the crypto world!
