The Federal Reserve just pressed the interest rate cut button, and the US stock market immediately soared to around 50,000 points; what about the crypto market? It's still bouncing back and forth around those key positions. Don't rush to breathe a sigh of relief— the real drama has just begun, and this coming week, the market may be more surreal than you think.
Why? Because there’s a more intense player about to take the stage: the Bank of Japan raising interest rates.
You might ask, what does it matter if Japan raises interest rates? It matters a lot. The yen has maintained a negative interest rate for the past twenty years—simply put, if you borrow 100 yen from Japan, you only need to pay back 99 yen. It sounds ridiculous, but it's the reality. And last December, Japan suddenly shifted to a positive interest rate, which is not a minor adjustment; it’s a structural earthquake in the global financial system.
Who is playing this game? It’s not retail investors like you and me, it’s players of the caliber of Buffett and Soros, as well as large institutions. They borrow super low-interest yen from Japan, convert it into dollars to speculate in the US stock market, buy gold, invest in bonds, and even allocate Bitcoin—after making money, they convert it back to yen to pay off debts, almost zero-cost arbitrage. Buffett’s phrase "I really love Japan" is not just politeness; behind it lies this logic of free bullets.
But now the problem arises: Japan is going to raise interest rates. What does that mean? It means that all the funds borrowed from Japan for global arbitrage now have to consider costs. Once interest costs rise, what will these funds do? Flow back to Japan to pay debts.
Thus, you will see: passive selling on a global scale—stocks, gold, crude oil, bonds, foreign exchange, and of course, Bitcoin and other crypto assets will also be included. In the short term, volatility will significantly increase, and there may even be a wave of collective correction.
So the coming week will be very strange: on one hand, the US is cutting interest rates and easing, while on the other, Japan is raising interest rates and tightening—two opposing forces pulling in different directions, the market is bound to experience short-term chaos and violent fluctuations. This is what is known as the "Confusing Week" $BTC #日本加息
