Has the good news really run out? Or is it the fog of a bull market?\n\nThe Federal Reserve announced a rate cut, but $BTC instead retreated from its peak—are institutions luring in the shorts or is the bear market truly not over? \n\nMy judgment is that we are currently stuck in a broad stalemate after the big plunge of the bear market. The worst of the sell-off is mostly over, but the market's sentiment has not yet returned, and fluctuations up and down are the norm, essentially still bottoming out. \n\nWhere is the problem? The rate cut is too "in line with expectations." Everyone had already bet on this expectation in advance, and now that it’s actually here, it’s not as stimulating as imagined—typical of "buy the expectation, sell the facts." What’s even more disheartening is that there is no unified thought within the Federal Reserve. The dot plot clearly shows that they are quite conservative about rate cuts in 2026, which directly shatters the market's fantasy of long-term easing. \n\nLooking at the balance sheet expansion, the scale is clearly framed to maintain sufficient reserves in the banking system, which means "limited liquidity," so relying on new liquidity to leverage the market in the short term? Difficult. \n\nThe most critical variable is personnel. Next year, there may be a reshuffling in the Federal Reserve's upper management, which means there is significant uncertainty regarding the interest rate direction in 2026. The more complex the signals, the slower the market's confidence will recover. \n\nHere’s a sincere suggestion for everyone: don’t think about precisely predicting the impact of every macro event, that’s basically gambling. Policy interpretation and the market's actual response always have time and expectation lags. Instead of getting caught up in every piece of news, it’s better to focus on identifying the real trends in the market—once the general direction is determined, the certainty of execution far exceeds guessing policy intentions. $BTC #美联储降息 \n