Bitcoin's growth history shows specific patterns that analysts often use to predict future trends. Recently, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity's Global Macro Director, published a fresh analysis of Bitcoin's development waves model.
Experts remain optimistic regarding next year, but approach their forecasts with caution.
How strong is Bitcoin's sixth growth phase?
In a recent report, Jurrien Timmer emphasized that Bitcoin's wave development model shows each new growth cycle intensifying more gradually but lasting longer.
Based on historical data since 2010, Timmer suggested that Bitcoin is now in its fifth wave. The cycle began from the bottom in 2022 when the price was $16,603 and could reach a predicted peak of around $151,360.
“It's hard to say in real time whether a new winter is beginning. But based on the developing structure of Bitcoin's wave, the latest bull market (starting from around $16,000 in 2022) already seems quite mature,” Jurrien Timmer noted.
In the short term, he remains optimistic about Bitcoin's development in the latter part of the year. Investor sentiment has improved thanks to the U.S. central bank's monetary policy easing.
In the long run, he referred to the sixth wave of growth. The model utilizes linear forecasts based on data from the previous five waves.
According to the model, the Bitcoin Descending Slope chart (in pink) indicates the following:
Wave 4: BTC grew 20-fold in 153 weeks from bottom to peak.
Wave 5 (ongoing): BTC could grow 9-fold in 160 weeks.
Wave 6 (coming): BTC could grow approximately 5-fold in 168 weeks.
However, the model does not specify an exact bottom price from which wave 6 will initiate. Timmer suggested a potential support level around $80,554, which is the current cycle's bottom.
These forecasts indicate a relatively positive start for 2026, as the fifth wave has not yet concluded.
Jimmy Xue, COO and co-founder of Axis, shared a similar view with BeInCrypto. He expects the effects of Fed rate cuts to become apparent soon.
“We lean more towards a steadier and more variable period rather than an immediate V-shaped recovery. The markets need time to adjust to recent volatility. However, the medium-term outlook remains bullish for the first quarter of 2026 as interest rate cuts start to reflect in global liquidity and institutional allocations are updated in January,” Jimmy Xue told BeInCrypto.
Some observations suggest that there may be more pessimistic scenarios ahead. The year 2026 is a midterm election year in the U.S. Based on historical data, Bitcoin has struggled during such years, with declines typically in the range of 60%–75%.
These conflicting analyses suggest an adventurous year for investors in 2026. In particular, institutional investors have continued accumulating BTC over the past two years since Bitcoin ETFs received approval.
