Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are expected to traverse 2026 with greater institutionalization and liquidity, driven by the entry of governments, banks, and a broader set of investors, in addition to the expansion of the ETP base and related products.
This is the assessment of the State of Crypto 2025 report, published by 21shares, responsible for the largest global offering of crypto ETFs and ETPs.
In the analysis presented, the research team at 21shares indicates that Bitcoin is expected to renew its peak next year, although the typical four-year cycle has lost momentum. According to the study, ETFs, corporate and sovereign investors acquired six times the volume of BTC mined in the year, altering the historical dynamics of the asset.
Thus, the report points to a cycle characterized by greater liquidity and institutional participation, softening price fluctuations. “Now each cycle offers less exponential returns, but with more moderate corrections, indicating the evolution of Bitcoin. The halving tends to maintain symbolic relevance but is no longer the main driver,” said Russell Barlow, CEO of 21shares.
“Since 2024, the drop of Bitcoin in relation to the highs has never exceeded 30%, while in previous cycles it surpassed 60%. In other words, Bitcoin is ceasing to behave like a small-cap retail bet and is starting to act as a global macro hedge,” completed Barlow.
The expansion of government and bank exposure to Bitcoin is expected to extend to other assets. 21shares estimates that the global market of crypto ETPs will rise from $250 billion this year to $400 billion in 2026, surpassing the assets of the largest ETF in the world, the Nasdaq-100, even with lower adoption from traditional investors.
“Only 27% of Bitcoin ETPs in the U.S. are allocated in institutional accounts. There is ample room for expansion,” said Duncan Moir, president of 21shares. He also emphasized the impact of regulatory changes. “The SEC has paved the way for asset offerings like Solana, XRP, and Dogecoin. There are 120 ETP proposals under review. The UK has removed restrictions, and from Asia to Latin America, new legal milestones are emerging, positioning crypto ETPs as a global standard for regulated access,” said Barlow.
Last month, the SEC approved two ETFs from 21shares under the Investment Company Act of 1940, the same framework as traditional funds, based on a basket of crypto assets. In September, the manager debuted in Brazil, the main market in Latin America, with products referenced in Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and Cardano.
Circulation of stablecoins triples and the market adopts agentic AI
The report also indicates that the volume of stablecoins is expected to reach $1 trillion by the end of 2026, up from the current $300 million. The sector, which multiplied tenfold in five years, is expected to gain traction with regulations in Europe and the U.S., where the White House indicates progress.
The forecasts are also positive for DeFi, whose value is expected to rise from $130 billion to $300 billion, for the predictive industry, stimulated by the American elections, and for the DATs, which may grow from $110 billion to $250 billion, although with greater concentration.
In Brazil, 21shares projects that $318 billion in crypto will circulate in the economy in 2025, with stablecoins representing 90% of the total. Remittances, commerce, and payments remain the main uses. “The regulatory changes of 2023 unlocked the market, and demand remains strong,” said Bruna Cabús, representative of the manager for Latin America and the Iberian Peninsula.
In the technological field, the report estimates that agentic artificial intelligence will begin to be implemented in areas such as payments, liquidity management, and transfers between blockchains. Maximiliaan Michielsen, investment strategist at 21shares, stated: “Agentic economy represents a structural shift in finance, where AI agents manage payments, yields, and liquidity between blockchains in an integrated manner, reducing friction and operational costs.
With emerging platforms, investors and consumers are beginning to access sophisticated strategies through simple language commands. As infrastructure advances, AI-driven DeFi not only automates tasks but also inaugurates a new class of autonomous and investable capital, offering efficiency, scale, and new opportunities within the decentralized economy.”
The article Bitcoin consolidates as a global hedge in 2026, says 21shares was first seen in BeInCrypto Brazil.
