Naked eyes on the market, hitting the essence directly. Yesterday's article was pinned; for those who haven't read it, go take a look. I shut down my positions and went all in on spot, but later thought it was a bit aggressive, so I exited to preserve capital. Last night, I shorted again and made some profit.
The daily close just formed a engulfing type of evening star, with a small double top forming. This line closed quite well, and this is good for the bears. Why is it good? Because the probability of launching upwards from here is very low. The weekly line also has two days left to close, and it won't be good either. Based on my market feeling and experience, a backtest of 85000 may not hold, and there is a high probability that we will test the weekly support at 78500.
If it reaches 78500 and does not break down to form a bottom rebound, this is what I have always believed; it's forming a head and shoulders pattern, with the height of the rebound around 110000. I also drew this in the chart yesterday, movement 1. For the movement 2 scenario where it does not break 85000, I think the probability is low. Because if it is movement 2, then this round of bull market peak would be a weekly double top structure, with the height of the rebound expected around 120000. You can review it; in the range of 110000-120000, the trading volume is very low, and buying pressure is weak. If it goes up again, there will still be no buyers. Instead, those who were previously stuck are now being released, increasing the selling pressure, and more people are shorting, which is not favorable for the market makers.
Conclusion: 1. For now, still fully short; those holding short positions should hold on well, at least aiming for 85000 for Bitcoin. For those without short positions, place an order to short at 92350; not sure if there will be another opportunity. 2. This should be the last wave to short; be prepared to switch to long, and planning for spot trading should be prioritized. As for what to buy in the spot market, I’ve looked at the coins in the department; aside from btc, eth, sol, and bnb which can be bought, other coins are performing poorly and it's best to avoid them. 3. For entering long or spot, my suggestion is to enter 20% at 85000 for Bitcoin; if the daily line holds, we can discuss further actions. For left-side entry, 30% at 81000, 30% at 78600, and finally, place 20% at 76500. 4. Ethereum levels: 2800, 2575; Solana levels: 125, 114, 108; BNB levels: 828, 808, 792. Next week there will definitely be significant market movement; it’s possible it will come as early as tomorrow night, with Bitcoin hitting the bottom next week.
Recently, I have been pondering a question: why is the number of people who give likes so low despite mutual contributions? Is my analysis not good? It should be better than most analysts. For Binance accounts that can be canceled, do so; bind my code or re-register in a family member's name. It doesn't matter under whose name it is played; fy is always 20%. How is your upstream's technical analysis? Can they answer any questions? When will the bear market bottom be next year, and how to escape the peak of the bull market? I plan to stop updating and just play by myself in a few days.
