After years of overt and covert struggles between China and the United States, America has realized that it is powerless and completely unable to suppress and contain the rise of China as an emerging country. The clever Trump has discovered that if the fight with China continues, not only will the status of global hegemony be lost, but it is highly likely that America will fall into an abyss. To preserve the last bit of dignity of the U.S., America has no choice but to compromise with China, implement strategic contraction, and even entertain the idea of co-governance with China as 'G2'. This is not American benevolence, but rather a necessity brought on by the decline of American power in recent years.

America's current strategic calculation, to put it simply, is 'sacrificing pawns to save the queen.' It's not that they don't want to continue to encircle China, but the money in their pockets and the troops in hand can't support the global burden anymore.

The latest national security strategy has designated the Western Hemisphere as the core area. Although the Asia-Pacific remains important, allies must take the lead. Europe is to take on NATO defense, while Japan is pushed to the frontline of the Taiwan Strait.

This adjustment is not sudden; Trump's team has done the math: over 600 overseas military bases consume over a trillion each year, supporting European allies whose military expenditure accounts for only 1%. It’s better to save the money to reinforce their own backyard.

But what about Asia-Pacific? The momentum of China cannot be suppressed, and direct confrontation risks severe injury. This is when Japan's 'value' becomes apparent.

In terms of industrial foundation, Japan has the third-largest economy globally; in terms of geographic location, the southwestern islands are close to the Taiwan Strait; in terms of ambition, right-wing forces have long wanted to break free from the peace constitution with America's help.

What America wants is this: to have Japan act as 'East Asia's Ukraine,' which can consume China and simultaneously turn Japan into a permanent nail in the Asia-Pacific.

Just like in the Ukraine crisis where America stayed behind and sold weapons, if something happens in the Taiwan Strait, Japan's bases, ports, and ammunition depots can become frontline consumables, while America just needs to provide remote support and reap the benefits.

Japanese politicians are not without their own calculations. They are eyeing the 'military normalization' promised by the U.S., thinking that stirring up the Taiwan Strait can exchange for opportunities to amend the constitution and expand the military, even fantasizing about replicating the 'special economic needs' of the Cold War era.

But they forget, when has America really protected its allies in history? Back during the Korean War, when Japan's funding was exhausted, isn't it the same as treating Japan as consumables now?

Look at the newly established 'Integrated Joint Command' of the U.S. forces in Japan; nominally it is cooperation, but in reality, it binds Japan's Self-Defense Forces into the combat system of the U.S. military. When a conflict arises, the first to be sacrificed will inevitably be the frontline islands and bases. The Okinawan people have protested for many years, yet U.S. bases continue to multiply; this is a ready example.

Trump signed the Taiwan-related bill, ostensibly to encourage Taiwan, but in reality, it was to stab Japan in the back. The bill changes U.S.-Taiwan relations from 'ambiguous' to 'legal,' superficially making Taiwan more dependent on the U.S., while in fact forcing Japan to follow: don't you want to be an ally? If something happens in the Taiwan Strait, you must step up first.

The Japanese Self-Defense Forces developed three island-seizing plans in 2021, all based on the assumption of support from U.S. forces. But in wartime, will America's aircraft carrier battle groups command from afar like they did in Ukraine?

Look at now, Europe is to take on NATO's defense, and America has set the deadline for 2027, just when the Taiwan Strait may become a critical juncture. The timing is so precise, it clearly shows that America wants Japan to take the lead in the Asia-Pacific while freeing its hands to deal with its backyard.

Even more subtly, there is America's domestic politics. Trump’s approval ratings are stuck, inflation, unemployment, and government shutdowns are a pile of messes, and there is an urgent need to shift focus onto external conflicts.

The Taiwan Strait issue can rally conservative voters and can also get the military-industrial complex to spend money in support. This year, there were two arms sales to Taiwan worth a billion dollars, and Boeing received orders for 50 aircraft. These tangible interests are far more effective than resolving domestic infrastructure issues.

As for whether Japan will be dragged down or Taiwan will become cannon fodder, American politicians don't care. Their calculation is: as long as the Taiwan Strait maintains 'controllable tension,' America can continue to drain resources until Japan's strategic value is exhausted.

The Japanese right wing sees this as an opportunity for 'great power revival.' They are building missile bases in the southwestern islands, expanding amphibious assault units, and even allowing the U.S. military to requisition campus land. It appears to be military expansion, but in reality, the entire nation is getting hitched to America's war chariot.

Look at the protests from the Japanese people; the Okinawans fear becoming a battlefield, ordinary citizens worry that military spending will squeeze their livelihoods, but politicians are not listening. They are fixated on America's promise of a 'nuclear umbrella,' fantasizing about reliving the old dream of 'Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere' amidst the chaos in the Taiwan Strait.

This kind of misjudgment is very similar to the time when the Kwantung Army mistakenly thought the Soviet Union would remain neutral. History never repeats itself simply, but human greed always follows a similar pattern.

Ultimately, America’s strategic contraction is not a surrender, but rather a more insidious approach, using the flesh and blood of its allies to build a new defense line at China's doorstep. Japan thinks it is leveraging the situation, but in reality, it is being used as a pawn, and the Taiwan authorities think they have latched onto a big leg to hold, but they are being marked with a price tag.

The waters of the Taiwan Strait are getting murkier, but China's bottom line has never been ambiguous: any tricks of 'using Taiwan to restrain China' will ultimately backfire. America's so-called 'G2 co-governance' is merely a delaying tactic during its decline. Just look at how it wants to lay mines in the Taiwan Strait before leaving, and you will know that the essence of hegemony has always been selfishness and hypocrisy.