Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within the latest consolidation phase and was around 90,000 dollars at the time of writing on Friday, as investors digest the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious rate cut in December and its implications for risk assets.
BTC's price movement is approaching a key downward trend line that could determine its next direction. At the same time, institutional flows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs showed mild inflows, and Strategy added more BTC to its treasury.
Fed's political tone triggers consolidation within Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin price started the week on a positive note, extending its weekend recovery during the first half of the week and holding above 92,600 dollars on Tuesday.
However, momentum eased on Wednesday, as BTC closed at 92,015 dollars after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.
In a widely anticipated move, the Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points. However, the FOMC meeting signaled a likely pause in January.
As an additional cautious tone, policymakers predicted only a quarter percentage point decrease for the overall forecast for 2026. This was the same outlook as in September, which dampened market expectations for two rate cuts and contributed to short-term pressure on risk assets.
The Fed's cautious tone, combined with disappointing Oracle earnings, contributed to a brief risk-off movement.
All these factors weighed on risk assets, with the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization dropping to a low of 89,260 dollars before recovering and closing above 92,500 dollars on Thursday.
Without any major U.S. data releases, the crypto markets will now look to FOMC member speeches and a broader risk sentiment for direction.
At the end of the week.
BTC is likely to consolidate in the short term unless a significant catalyst emerges.
Russia-Ukraine uncertainty limits risk momentum.
On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump is “extremely frustrated” with Russia and Ukraine, and he does not want more talk, his spokesperson said on Thursday.
Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that the U.S. pressured the country to cede land to Russia as part of a deal to end an almost four-year-long war.
These lingering geopolitical tensions and calibrated peace talks continue to weigh on global risk sentiment, limiting risk appetite and contributing to Bitcoin's consolidation so far this week.
Institutional demand shows mild signs of improvement.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin shows mild signs of improvement.
According to SoSoValue data, U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total inflow of 237.44 million dollars by Thursday, following a mild outflow of 87.77 million dollars a week earlier, signaling that interest from institutional investors increased slightly.
These weekly inflows are, however, small compared to those observed in mid-September. For BTC to continue its recovery, ETF inflows must intensify.
On the corporate front, Strategy Inc. (MSTR) announced on Monday that they bought 10,624 Bitcoin for 962.7 million dollars between December 1 and 7 at an average price of 90,615 dollars.
The company currently holds 660,624 BTC, valued at 49.35 billion dollars. Strategy still has significant capacity to raise additional capital, potentially enabling further large-scale Bitcoin accumulation.
On-chain data shows that selling pressure is decreasing.
CryptoQuants weekly report on Wednesday highlights that the selling pressure on Bitcoin is beginning to ease.
The report notes that deposits decreased as large players reduced their transfers to exchanges.
The graph below shows that the proportion of total deposits from large players has decreased from a 24-hour peak of 47% in mid-November to 21% on Wednesday.
At the same time, the average deposit has decreased by 36%, from 1.1 BTC in November 22 to 0.7 BTC.
CryptoQuant concludes that if the selling pressure remains low, a relief rally could push Bitcoin back to 99,000 dollars. This level is the lower band of the Trader On-chain Realized Price bands, which is a price resistance during bear markets.
After this level, the key price resistances are 102,000 dollars (one-year moving average) and 112,000 dollars (Trader On-chain Realized Price).
The Copper Research report also signaled optimism around Bitcoin. The report suggests that BTC's four-year cycle has not died out; it has been swapped.
Since the launch of spot ETFs, Bitcoin has exhibited repeatable cost-based return cycles, as shown in the graph below.
Fadi Aboualfa, head of research at Copper, told FXStreet that “since spot ETFs launched, Bitcoin has moved in repeatable mini-cycles where it pulls back to its acquisition value and then recovers by around 70%.
With BTC now traded near its acquisition value of 84,000 dollars, this pattern suggests a movement above 140,000 dollars over the next 180 days.
If the cost basis rises by 10–15%, as in previous cycles, the resulting premium at earlier peaks gives a target range of 138,000 to 148,000 dollars.
Bitcoin Santa Claus rally ahead?
Bitcoin recorded a loss of 17.67% in November, disappointing traders who had expected a rise based on its strong historical returns for the month (see CoinGlass data below).
December has historically been a positive month for king crypto, with an average return of 4.55%.
Looking at quarterly data, the fourth quarter (Q4) has generally been the best quarter for BTC, with an average return of 77.38%.
Nonetheless, the development over the past three months of 2025 has been weak so far, with a loss of 19% at the moment.
Is BTC setting a bottom?
Bitcoin's weekly chart shows price support around the 100-week exponential moving average (EMA) at 85,809 dollars, with two consecutive green candles after a four-week correction that began at the end of October.
As of this week, BTC is trading slightly higher and holding above 92,400 dollars.
If BTC continues its recovery, it could extend the rise towards the 50-week EMA at 99,182 dollars.
The relative strength index (RSI) on the weekly chart shows 40, which points upward and indicates diminishing downward momentum. For the recovery rally to be sustained, RSI should rise above the neutral level of 50.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin's price was rejected at the Fibonacci retracement level of 61.8% at 94,253 dollars (drawn from the April low of 74,508 dollars to the record high of 126,199 dollars set in October) on Wednesday.
But on Thursday, BTC recovered after testing its psychological level at 90,000 dollars again.
If BTC breaks above the descending trend line (drawn by connecting several peaks since early October) and closes above 94,253 dollars.
The resistance level could extend the rise towards the psychological level of 100,000 dollars.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is stable near the neutral 50 level, indicating a lack of short-term momentum on both sides.
For the positive momentum to be maintained, RSI should rise above the neutral level.
At the same time, the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) showed a positive crossover at the end of November, which remains intact and supports the positive thesis.
If BTC were to resume its downward correction, the first key support is at 85,569 dollars, which aligns with the Fibonacci retracement level of 78.6%.
