Many people ask me: 'How have you survived in the crypto world for so long?'
My answer is one sentence: Don't see yourself as a gambler, see yourself as a fortune teller — calculating probabilities, not luck.
First rule: Lock in profits at different levels, make compound interest a habit.
I've seen too many people earn and not walk away, ultimately losing everything. My principle is very simple: every profit must be 'divided' immediately.
Capital safety line: Before placing each order, I first calculate the probability. I only take action when the expected profit is more than three times the risk (for example, I might lose 1U, but I can earn 3U).
Profit layering and locking: When profits reach 12% of the capital, immediately transfer 60% of the profits into a cold wallet—this money is no longer 'currency circle funds', but the confidence to buy a house or gold in the future. The remaining 40% continues to roll.
Doubling the account must withdraw: Each time total assets double, forcibly withdraw 20% and allocate it to gold or US bonds. I have withdrawn 47 times in 5 years, with the most being 250,000U transferred out in a week, even triggering the exchange's risk control call.
Core logic: The money in the currency circle is 'bubble profit'; if not withdrawn, it will eventually return.
The second iron rule: multi-timeframe hedging, specifically treating anxiety in volatile markets
The market is in a volatile state most of the time; blindly chasing and killing is equivalent to giving away money. My method is like a 'three-layer sieve':
Daily line sets the trend: Check whether BTC is above the 120-day moving average. If so, the big direction is bullish, only make long trades and not short.
4-hour range: Identify support and resistance levels (such as previous lows, previous highs, dense trading areas); in a volatile market, place long orders at the bottom of the range and short orders at the top.
15 minutes to find an entry point: Combine changes in volume; place orders when the volume decreases to below 40% of the average, avoiding chasing highs.
The essence of this logic is: do not predict direction, only respond to probabilistic advantages. For example, in a volatile market, I rely on range arbitrage to harvest profits; when a trend comes, I hold onto leading coins to ride the main surge.
The third iron rule: stop-loss is the ticket, exchanging small losses for big wins
My win rate is only 41%, but the profit-loss ratio is 4.8:1—losing 1U can earn 4.8U. The secret is one sentence: stop-loss is not failure, it is paying for the next opportunity.
Position management: Total funds divided into 10 parts, use only 1 part for a single trade. Stop immediately after two consecutive losses to prevent getting carried away.
Dynamic stop-loss: When profits reach twice the stop-loss line, move the stop-loss to the cost price (for example, if you lose 1% of your capital, adjust the stop-loss to the cost line after gaining 2%), ensuring you do not lose your capital.
Weekly review probability table: Use Excel to count the win rates of different strategies (for example, how many breakthrough trading win rates, how many pullback trading win rates), and eliminate ineffective signals.
Remember: there are no gods in the currency circle, only probabilities. A single explosive profit may rely on luck, but long-term profitability depends on 'losing less when losing and earning more when winning'.
One final heartfelt word
Many people are obsessed with 'getting rich overnight', but I only pursue 'surviving in a bear market and gradually becoming rich in a bull market'.
Don’t blindly trust technical indicators: Moving averages and MACD are just tools; their essence is to reflect market sentiment. You need to judge whether 'the market is currently in panic or greed', rather than mechanically following golden crosses and death crosses.
Reject FOMO: Missing out on a surge is more painful than losing money? That’s a mental trap. I miss dozens of 'hundredfold coins' every year, but by being steady, my drawdown in 5 years does not exceed 10%.
The most stable way to make money in the currency circle is actually to turn yourself into a system—manage your hands with probabilistic thinking and manage your mind with layered withdrawals. Follow Ake to learn more first-hand information and currency circle knowledge at precise points, becoming your navigation in the currency circle; learning is your greatest wealth!#加密市场反弹 #美联储降息 $ETH
