Recently, my real feeling about the market can be summed up in one sentence: the current big pie is increasingly resembling a knockoff, with a heavy flavor of control.
Last night, when the US stock market dropped, BTC followed and broke below 90,000, but quickly got pulled back up. The problem is — there was no strength in the rebound. This kind of trend, don't expect any smooth main rising wave in the short term; it feels more like a controlled pace by someone.
For the real directional choice, I think we will likely have to wait for Japan's interest rate hike to land.
From a structural perspective, it's actually very clear:
Whether the 90,000 can hold at the 4-hour level is key.
Only by standing above can one qualify to touch 100,000;
If 90,000 can't be held, then we must accept a second test of the bottom and continue the wide range fluctuations.
Ethereum has seen consecutive large downs in the past two days, causing many people to panic. In fact, I find it normal; this is a typical second retracement of the neckline. At the beginning of a bullish trend, there should be frequent washouts to clear out profits and scare off retail investors. This morning, it briefly broke the neckline but quickly returned, indicating that the support is effective. Not breaking through the long-term downtrend line all at once does not mean it's going badly, but rather it's building strength for the next attack. The overall highs and lows are rising, with a large bearish candle followed by a doji, a pregnant line structure, looking more like a consolidation rather than a reversal.
But the market environment must be clarified:
Now CEX has speculative capital every day, and there are also people controlling the market in Alpha, but overall liquidity is extremely poor, and the market is unresponsive, making operations very challenging. At this stage, if you're unsure, it's safer to do less than to act frequently.
Corrections are part of the process, not the end point. The direction is theoretically still upwards, but reality is harsh. The candidates for the Fed's interest rate cut have been preliminarily decided, and the expectations for rate cuts and balance sheet expansion have not led to a real recovery in the market. I chose to admit defeat first - not out of bearish faith, but because I see the risk of a trend reversal approaching.
From 80,600 to the rebound now has been three weeks. To be honest, it can only be considered mediocre. Besides Ethereum being a bit stronger, the rebound of Bitcoin and most altcoins is quite ordinary. 94,000 has drawn several barriers, and we still can't break through, which is obviously not right.
So, in the weeks surrounding the interest rate cut, I reduced my positions by about 35% at relatively high levels, clearing out most altcoins and shutting down risk exposure; I also did some loss-cutting reductions in certain mainstream assets. The actual capital has significantly retreated, and it would be false to say it doesn't hurt, but I accept it. In a bear market, risk control always comes first; surviving is the priority.
I originally expected this rebound to reach 98,000 - 100,000 before liquidating, but the longer the time drags on, the greater the uncertainties. The inability for positive news to boost is a risk in itself. Now BTC has also formed a triangular convergence structure, with the turning point next week. Referencing previous similar structures, once it breaks below the short-term trend line, the consequences won't be pretty.
Currently, this key support is at 88,000. Once it breaks down, it is very likely to test lower positions. This is also the reason why I don't want to gamble anymore. Of course, there's not entirely no hope for a higher rebound, but we must at least stabilize above 95,000 to truly alleviate the pressure before discussing 100,000.
Next week there is a significant certainty of a negative factor - the Bank of Japan raising interest rates. Even if it has already been partially priced in, I don't want to gamble with actual money. The liquidity in the market continues to be sluggish, with no excitement and no follow-up, which is the biggest problem.
I still believe there's a chance for Bitcoin to touch 100,000, but not this month. Liquidity will only get worse around Christmas and New Year's. Real hope may have to wait until the first quarter for a rebound and a short-squeeze market. Those who can endure should endure, but I choose to only focus on the short term and cut losses, so as not to let the market exhaust my energy.
Next, my strategy will be more realistic:
Lower expectations, conserve strength, focus more on short-term trades, and start laying out mainstream low-leverage short positions, taking it step by step. I would prefer to wait for the next round of the bull market at a lower and safer position.
The market won't disappear, but once the funds are gone, they are truly gone. In this stage, staying alive is more important than anything.
Opportunities disappear in the blink of an eye, everyone gather quickly!
Don't let hesitation delay the best opportunity to get rich, and don't be completely shredded by air coins. Follow Sister Meow to enjoy this wave of bull market!
