Main direction (1-hour chart): **Bearish direction**
- Price ≈3,118 < EMA20(3,114-3,121) ≈ EMA50(3,107-3,154) (Price is basically below or hovering around EMA)
- MACD dead cross followed by sustained green bars (DIF negative, bars are narrowing but not turning red)
- Meets bearish conditions → Only short allowed (longs prohibited)
Current signal: No quality short entry opportunities
- After a slight rebound from the low of 3,041, the price is currently consolidating in the 3,100-3,250 range
- 5/15M chart: Small real body candlesticks, no obvious shooting star or bearish engulfing patterns
- No rebound to EMA20/50 or descending trend line + volume confirmation
- No break below the previous low (3,041) and bounce back without breaking confirms the breakout
If a bearish signal appears (preferred entry on a pullback):
- Entry: Bounce to EMA20/50 (around 3,120-3,150) + Shooting Star/Bearish Engulfing pattern → Short Sell
- Stop loss: Above the recent swing high 3,250-3,257 (or ATR 1-1.5 times, risk 1-2% of capital)
- Take profit: Risk-reward ratio ≥ 2:1, first take profit 50% at 3,041-3,080 (2R), remaining hold to Fibonacci extension 1.272/1.618 (about 2,900-3,000) or trail
Recommendation: Low liquidity on weekends, ETH following BTC in weak fluctuations, bearish signal is not mature. Continue to observe, wait for a clear bearish pattern + volume to re-enter when it bounces to the EMA resistance area. Currently, there are no signals, avoid forcefully shorting. Key support at 3,041 being broken will accelerate bearish momentum.$ETH
