XRP price has recovered from recent lows, and has risen nearly 4% from yesterday's low point and has stabilized after a moderate decline. Although the overall trend remains cautious, a new measure suggests that downside risk may be starting to diminish.
After the issuer of XRP recently moved closer to regulated bank status, attention is now turning to whether the largest holders continue to intervene to confirm a real trend shift.
Bullish divergence is formed when the largest whale wallets start buying
On the daily chart, the XRP price has shown a bullish divergence between December 1 and December 12. During this period, the price formed a lower low, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low. The RSI measures momentum, and this pattern often occurs when selling pressure weakens before a rise.
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This formation has already triggered a rise, but what makes this more interesting is the whale activity. The two largest groups of XRP holders have already begun to react.
Wallets holding more than 1 billion XRP increased their holdings from 25.36 billion on December 9 to 25.42 billion. At the same time, wallets with between 100 million and 1 billion XRP reversed their selling activity, rising from 8.08 billion on December 11 to 8.15 billion at the time of publication.
In total, these two groups have added approximately 130 million XRP. At today's price, that corresponds to about $265 million in net purchases. This confirms that the largest holders are not just observing the divergence; they are acting on it.
Timing is also important. Ripple has recently come closer to securing a U.S. banking license, which strengthens the long-term institutional narrative. This regulatory backdrop adds further weight to whale interest at these levels.
XRP price levels that determine whether the rise holds
For the bullish divergence to remain valid, XRP price must be monitored. The first level of concern is $2.11. A daily close above this will represent a movement of 3.72% from today's levels and confirm that buyers are regaining short-term control. XRP has not held above $2.11 since early December.
If that level is broken, the next resistance is at $2.21. Only a sustained breakthrough above $2.21 will make the structure bullish and open the way towards $2.58 or higher.
On the downside, the risk is clearly defined. If the XRP price falls below $1.96 while the RSI weakens, the bullish divergence will be invalidated. That scenario will first open up to $1.88, followed by $1.81 if selling intensifies.
Right now, the setup is constructive but incomplete. The momentum indicators show improvement, and the whales have already responded once. For this turnaround to fully play out, the large holders must continue to provide support and not just react temporarily.
